MLB Odds & Player Props: | 3 Bets for Thursday, Including Yandy Diaz, Mike Clevinger & Manny Machado
Ezra Shaw/Getty Images. Pictured: Yandy Diaz of the Tampa Bay Rays.
- Thursday's MLB slate features only six games, but there's still betting value on a number of player props.
- Alex Hinton came through with picks for Manny Machado, Mike Clevinger and Yandy Diaz for Thursday.
- Check out all three of Hinton's top player props for Thursday below.
There’s just a six-game MLB slate today with many teams traveling for their weekend series.
A pair of series that will be finishing up today are the Padres-Twins and the White Sox-Royals. The Padres took Game 1 of this series behind a big game from Manny Machado. He went 0-for-4 yesterday as the Twins won in extra innings, 4-3. He’ll look to bounce back against Bailey Ober, who’s off to a great start this season.
The Royals have taken two of the first three games against their Southside rivals, outscoring the White Sox by 16 in their victories. The White Sox will send Mike Clevinger to the mound to try to salvage a split.
The Yankees won the AL East, but this year it’s the Rays setting the pace in the division thus far. The Rays took two out of three from the Yankees last weekend in Tampa. Tonight, they’ll meet for the first of four in Tampa as Yandy Diaz looks to lead the Rays offense.
MLB Player Props For Thursday, May 11
Manny Machado Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-125)
|Padres vs. Twins|
|First Pitch||1:10 p.m. ET|
Last week, we backed Machado against the great Clayton Kershaw and lived to tell about it. He went 2-for-3 with a run scored and cashed this prop with ease.
Although it’s not plus-money this time, I’m going back to Machado again. He has not cooled off since then, recording three multi-hit games in his last five.
Machado has now gone over this line in seven of his last 10 games. He’s averaging 3.5 hits + runs + RBIs over his last 10 games. The high mark came against San Francisco when he recorded 10, but he also recorded six against Minnesota on Tuesday.
Machado’s recent hot streak has brought his season average over two, so an average game would cash this line.
That may be difficult against Ober, though. The 6-foot-9 right-hander is off to a great start with a 0.98 ERA through his first three starts. However, the Padres will be the best lineup he’s faced this season. Additionally, given his career ERA (3.51), I don’t anticipate Ober channeling Bob Gibson for an entire season.
Even if he does shut the Padres down, two hits or a hit and run scored will cash this prop for Machado.
Pick: Manny Machado Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
Mike Clevinger Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-140)
|White Sox vs. Royals|
|First Pitch||2:10 p.m. ET|
The Royals’ bats have caught fire of late, but that hasn’t stopped them from striking out. Four of the last five starters they’ve faced have all gone over their strikeout props, and they all had at least five. Three of them had at least six strikeouts, and three were right-handed, like Clevinger.
Clevinger has recorded five strikeouts in four of his first seven starts this season. Two of the starts he went under came against Pittsburgh and Toronto, who are both in the bottom third of the league in strikeout percentage.
Today, Clevinger faces a Royals lineup that ranks seventh in strikeout percentage against right-handed pitchers. If Clevinger goes over this line, he may end up piling up the strikeouts.
In three of his starts with five innings, he had seven strikeouts, including two with eight. You can take Clevinger to record seven strikeouts at +330 and eight at +630 on FanDuel.
He has pitched at least five innings in six of his seven starts and has thrown 90 pitches in five of them. If Clevinger goes five innings, he will need a strikeout per inning to cash this over for us.
Pick: Mike Clevinger Over 4.5 Strikeouts
Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-130)
|Rays vs. Yankees|
|First Pitch||7:10 p.m. ET|
Diaz will enter tonight’s game riding an eight-game hitting streak. He has also scored a run in six of those games. As a result, he went over this line in all three games against the Yankees last weekend.
Diaz has done the bulk of his damage this season via the long ball. He has nine home runs to go along with 19 runs batted in. Diaz is tied for eighth in MLB in home runs, and he’s also fourth in OPS.
He homered in the first game of last weekend’s series. That home run didn’t come against Domingo German, but he does have a good track record against the Yankees hurler. Diaz is 6-for-17 (.353) with two doubles, a home run and four RBIs off German. He singled in three plate appearances against German last Saturday.
Diaz has done a good job of driving himself this season. A home run would give him three and cash this combo in one swing. However, he’s the leadoff hitter for a Rays team that’s averaging over six runs per game. If he gets on base, he will be in a position to score and cash this combo.
Pick: Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
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