MLB Props Today | Odds, Picks for Zac Gallen, Dylan Cease, More (Friday, September 29)
Megan Briggs/Getty Images. Pictured: Zac Gallen
The Padres are still mathematically alive for a NL Wildcard spot and will need to sweep the White Sox to have any chance to get in. They may be able to take game one by drawing a few walks off Dylan Cease.
Heading to the American League, the Orioles clinched the AL East last night along with their first 100-win season since 1980. However, the Rangers' were denied a playoff spot and their magic number in the AL West remained at two after a Mariners walk-off victory. Marcus Semien and Corey Seager will look to get the offense against Bryan Woo.
The Rangers and especially the Mariners will both be big fans of the Diamondbacks tonight as they host the Astros. Arizona is looking to clinch a NL Wildcard berth as well and will hand the ball to ace Zac Gallen tonight.
MLB Player Props For Friday, September 29
Dylan Cease's stuff is among the best in baseball, but 2023 has not been his best year. Cease is 7-8 with a 4.66 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. He has just 12 quality starts this season. He has had trouble reaching six innings to qualify for a quality start because of his elevated pitch counts from walking batters.
Cease has walked 77 batters in 172 innings and he ranks in the 26th percentile in walk rate this season. Cease has been a safe bet for two walks this season as he has done in 24 of 32 this season. He has walked three in just 41% of his starts this season, but he has done so five of his last 10 starts. Tonight, I'm fading Cease because of his matchup.
He gets the Padres tonight, who lead the MLB in walk rate this season. Cease walked four Padres in five innings against them last season. Cease has walked Xander Bogaerts twice and Ha-Seong Kim once. Surprisingly, he has not walked Juan Soto in three plate appearances. However, Soto leads the MLB with 129 walks and he is always a candidate to walk.
In looking at Cease's last four starts, he has walked three batters just once. However, he has faced the Red Sox and the Royals twice. The Red Sox do not walk very much against right-handed pitchers while the Royals do not walk often period. I do not expect that to be the case against the Padres tonight.
Pick: Dylan Cease Over 2.5 Walks (+100)
The Astros rank 27th in strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers this season. George Kirby and Bryce Miller combined for eight strikeouts in the final two games of their series in Seattle. However, that did not stop Luis Castillo from punching out eight himself in six innings on Monday. While the Astros beat Castillo, they have another ace to deal with tonight.
Zac Gallen ranks seventh in the MLB with 213 strikeouts in 203 and 2/3 innings this season. He has hit this line in 24 of 33 starts this season, averaging 6.5 per game. This line is well below his season average and that is before accounting for his dominance at home.
Gallen is averaging 7.5 strikeouts per game at home and has struck out five in 13 of his 15 home starts. He has 113 strikeouts in just 95 and 2/3 innings at home. He also is 12-2 with a 2.45 ERA and averaging 6 and 1/3 innings per start at home. On his home mound, I'm expecting Gallen to hold the Astros in check and go deep into this game.
That will make it easier to hit this line if he has five strikeouts in six innings for instance. However, Gallen's lines offer a ton of value on FanDuel. He has struck out seven in nine home starts and eight in six of them. You can take him to get seven strikeouts at +340 and eight at +700 on FanDuel.
Pick: Zac Gallen Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-122)
The Rangers offense has been among the best in baseball this year as they rank in the top three in batting average, home runs, and runs scored. When they get rolling, they can score in bunches and Marcus Semien and Corey Seager are usually are right in the middle of it.
Semien is hitting .283 in September, which is roughly on par with his .276 average for the season. Also of note, he needs one home run and run batted in for the second 30 HR/100 RBI season of his career. He has four home runs in his last five games. However, he has a hit in 11 of his last 15 games.
Corey Seager is often batting behind Semien in the Rangers lineup, offering protection and doing damage himself. At .332, he is in good position to win the first batting title of his career. However, Yandy Diaz is right on his heels at .328 so Seager will need to finish the season well. He will enter tonight riding a nine-game hitting streak and he has a hit in 12 of his last 15 games.
I am backing both of them tonight because they are each 3-for-4 with a home run against Mariners rookie Bryan Woo. The young right-hander has allowed 12 earned runs in 5 and 1/3 innings against the Rangers this year. I also like both for total bases. Semien's odds are more favorable solo (+110) and you can parlay both of them for two total bases at +291 on FanDuel.
Pick: Marcus Semien / Corey Seager One Hit Parlay (-125)
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