Happy Dinger Tuesday!
Read on for my nine MLB Home Run Picks Today for Tuesday, August 4, including picks for Angels vs Orioles, White Sox vs Red Sox and Tigers vs Mariners.
MLB Home Runs Picks Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:35 PM | |
  | 7:10 PM | |
  | 7:40 PM | |
  | 8:10 PM | |
  | 9:40 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Angels vs Orioles
This is a good spot, and these odds are a bit too high on Big Meat Pete.
Grayson Rodriguez has been a gas can for righty power this season (2.01 HR/9), and while he's due for some positive regression, he grades out as a plus matchup for righty power.
Pete Alonso has been a bit cold recently, but the power is still there.
I have the true odds here around +300, making this a good bet.
Pick: Pete Alonso Home Run (+325)
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White Sox vs Red Sox
These odds are a bit high given the spot. Patrick Sandoval grades out as an average matchup for righty power, and this ballpark is a slight downgrade for righty power, but the weather should be above average for hitting.
Vargas has been one of the best HR hitters in the league this season, and he's far too good to be priced this high in a spot that is just slightly below average.
I have the true odds around +350, making this a great bet.
Pick: Miguel Vargas Home Run (+425)
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Twins vs Royals
This is a plus spot, and these odds are too high.
Joe Ryan is a good pitcher, but he's an extreme fly-ball pitcher with above-average splits. He's given up a high 1.59 HR/9 to lefties this season and grades out as a matchup that is well above average for lefty power.
The weather in Kansas City should be good for hitting, with temps in the low-90s.
I have the true odds here around +350, making this a great bet.
Pick: Jac Caglianone Home Run (+412)
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Blue Jays vs Astros
This is a good spot for Okamoto, but he isn't priced like it.
The matchup is good vs. Hayden Wesneski, who has allowed a high 1.59 HR/9 in his career to righties.
With the Crawford Boxes, this ballpark is good for righty power, and Okamoto has been one of the best HR hitters in the league this season.
I have the true odds here around +370, making this a great bet.
Pick: Kazuma Okamoto Home Run (+460)
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Tigers vs Mariners
The spot here is a good one for Greene and the odds are a bit too high. Hancock has been better this season, but he's still allowed above average power to lefties and historically he's been a well above average matchup for lefty power.
Greene hasn't been great this season, but the underlying numbers show he's due for a lot of positive regression.
I have the true odds on Greene around +375 making this a great EV bet.
Pick: Riley Greene Home Run (+400)
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