We’re going to be trying something different at Action Network this season.
Minor League baseball is an inefficient market. I’ve been betting on Triple-A ball since 2021, and the market has become widely available enough that I was able to provide picks to my subscribers last season — I went a documented 112-81-8 (58%) for a 51.7-unit profit.
You can still get most of my Triple-A picks over at WagerTalk, but I’m going to start publishing an Minor League baseball column here at Action Network on Tuesdays and Fridays, previewing the week and weekend ahead while providing some actionable insights.
So far this season, I'm 60-41 betting Triple-A baseball, good for +38.39 units of profit.
Norfolk Tides @ Buffalo Bisons
Tuesday, 6:35 PM ET
Baltimore went with a longer-term route at the deadline, which, in the short term, should benefit Norfolk.
We are still waiting to see which players get assigned, but the Tides could get Christian Franklin and Rece Hinds in the lineup this week — a huge boost for one of the worst lineups in Triple-A.
Norfolk also should improve in the pitching department, as I think Anthony Eyanson makes his Tides debut sooner rather than later, and Michael Forret should slot right into this rotation. Baltimore also grabbed a slew of solid relievers, so the Tides should add more weapons to an already rock-solid staff.
Norfolk is a horrific 9-22 since the second half started because of its horrific lineup, but I think the additions of Franklin and Hinds will make a big difference, especially against a Buffalo team without much pitching.
Pick: Norfolk Tides ML (+120, bet365) | Norfolk Tides +1.5 (-170, bet365)
Rochester Red Wings @ Scranton Rail Riders
Tuesday, 7:05 PM ET
I’m looking to sell Scranton after its 6-0 sweep against Iowa last week.
Rochester has been dealing with injuries in the second half, but the Red Wings are still 18-15 since the reset, and they got Seaver King back in the lineup last week.
Scranton is 22-9 since the second half started, the best record in the International League, but some of that is opponent-driven, as the Riders have beaten up on the likes of Norfolk, Buffalo, and Iowa. Those three have been some of the worst Triple-A squads this season, while Rochester came within a game of winning the International League first half and should have some reinforcements coming soon via trade deadline moves.
Scranton has been without Garrett Martin for over a month, and it recently lost Spencer Jones to a call-up. George Lombard Jr. has also been called up, meaning they’ll replace him and his 34-game on-base streak with Anthony Volpe.
It’ll be interesting to see how the pitching lines up for Rochester, but Scranton also lost some bullpen arms lately, so it’s overvalued in the pitching department, too.
Pick: Rochester Red Wings ML (-125, bet365)
Sugar Land Space Cowboys @ Albuquerque Isotopes
Tuesday, 8:35 PM ET
I think it’s time to sell Sugar Land after an insane start to the second half.
Sugar Land was one of the worst teams in the PCL during the first half and, with a marginally better lineup, is 25-8 since the start of the second half.
The Sugar Land lineup is better now than it was earlier in the year, but the Cowboys have benefitted from an easier schedule as well. They’ve played at home for nearly a month — a noted pitcher’s park — against some of the worst competition in the International League.
But now the Cowboys hit the road to Albuquerque. The ‘Topes have an elite lineup and play in a huge hitter’s park.
The key thing to note here is the price, as the Isotopes are almost always overpriced at home. However, Sugar Land should be laying juice in most games this series with the run the Space Cowboys are on, and the Albuqurque lineup always gives it a good shot.
Pick: Albuquerque Isotopes ML (-115, bet365)
Trigger's Top Triple-A Plays for Tuesday
- Norfolk Tides ML (+120, bet365)
- Norfolk Tides +1.5 (-170, bet365)
- Rochester Red Wings (-125, bet365)
- Albuquerque Isotopes ML (-115, bet365)
To keep up with any Minor League baseball bets I make, be sure to follow me in the Action Network App.
How To Bet on Triple-A Baseball
The first thing you need to understand about exploiting the Triple-A market is that it’s still a developmental league.
The players range from MLB-ready prospects to 30-plus-year-old journeymen trying to make it back to the show. You also have a handful of guys who likely top out at Triple-A but are good for organizational depth.
It’s also worth mentioning that 14 players on the Triple-A roster are also on the MLB 40-man roster, and these guys are constantly moving up and down from the big leagues.
All this makes each roster dynamic and volatile.
Bookmakers track the big names (e.g., Konnor Griffin) but can’t keep up with all the roster moves on a day-to-day basis. They also struggle to track the “developmental” aspect of everyone needing to play.
Lineups will look different day to day, and that’s primarily where I find my edge. This edge will become more pronounced as the season progresses, as I have a much greater bias toward in-season data and need a larger sample size to detect actionable wagers.
It’s worth noting that the Triple-A series consists of weekly six-game series that run Tuesday through Sunday. Additionally, every game is televised on MiLB.TV, which you can get as part of your MLB.TV subscription or directly at milb.com.
