Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis for that day’s games.
Nick Martin has that job for Tuesday, August 4.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- Jesus Luzardo Over 1.5 Earned Runs/Over 4.5 Hits Parlay +110 (Bet365, Play to +100)
- Pirates vs Brewers Under 7.5 Runs -110 (FanDuel, Play to -115)
Nationals vs Phillies Picks
Washington is currently mired in a six-game losing streak, leaving its surprising postseason aspirations on life support despite offering MLB's highest-scoring offense by a fairly large margin, as well as a run differential of +13.
The Nationals are heavy +235 underdogs to snap the slump on Tuesday, as they face off against dominant lefty Jesus Luzardo.
While I'm not quite there on backing Washington to win, Luzardo's chances of authoring a strong start seem to be overvalued given the difficulty of the matchup.
Since June 1, the Nationals hold a wRC+ of 123 versus left-handed pitching and have been the second most productive team versus lefties this season. They've struck out 23.4% of the time versus lefties but also rank 11th in BB/K ratio and hold the highest weighted on-base average.
While losing Luis Garcia Jr.'s bat does lower Washington's offensive ceiling, his absence shouldn't have a significant impact on the team's production against left-handed pitching.
Garcia has managed just a .616 OPS versus southpaws this season, and he isn't one of the many Nationals hitters who have consistently punished left-handed pitching.
Following a slow start to the season, Luzardo has rounded into excellent form, pitching to a 2.83 xERA and 3.14 xFIP across 94 1/3 innings since May 1. One of the few blemishes during that stretch came against the Nationals on June 23, when they tagged him for six hits and five earned runs.
At +110, there's some value backing Luzardo to allow at least two earned runs and five hits.
Picks: Luzardo Over 1.5 Earned Runs/Over 4.5 Hits Allowed +110 (bet365, Play to +100)
Pirates vs Brewers Picks
Following a year-long rehab process, it took Jared Jones a handful of starts to regain his full form. But the 24-year-old flamethrower has looked outstanding over his last seven outings.
During that stretch, Jones has a 2.63 ERA backed by an excellent 2.08 xERA, while posting an elite 23.8% strikeout-minus-walk rate. He also owns a 106 Pitching+ rating and has held opposing hitters to a .133 batting average.
The Pirates brought in four quality relievers prior to the trade deadline — Luke Weaver, Kirby Yates, Lake Bachar and Camilo Doval — and suddenly their bullpen looks quite respectable.
Logan Henderson looks to be yet another excellent addition from one of MLB's sharpest front offices, as the 24-year-old right-hander has been outstanding across his first 44 innings this season.
Henderson owns a 2.67 xERA and 2.96 xFIP, while his ability to consistently get ahead of hitters has been a major factor in his success. He's recorded a first-pitch strike 69.7% of the time, allowing him to consistently work from favorable counts and maximize the effectiveness of his strong arsenal.
Milwaukee's bullpen has remained in strong form of late, posting a 3.53 xFIP with a 101 Pitching+ rating over the last 30 days.
With both teams likely relying on better-than-average pitching throughout this matchup, the opposing lineups should face a difficult task from start to finish.
At -115 or better, there's value backing this game to stay under 7.5 total runs.
Picks: Under 7.5 Runs -110 (FanDuel, Play to -115)
Martin's MLB Picks and Predictions for Tuesday, August 4
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Jesus Luzardo Over 1.5 Earned Runs/Over 4.5 Hits Parlay +110 (Bet365, Play to +100)
- Pirates vs Brewers Under 7.5 Runs -110 (FanDuel, Play to -115)
