We have a full slate of MLB games on Tuesday, so there's plenty of betting value on the board.
Three players I'm eyeing for Tuesday's slate are Joey Cantillo, Bryce Harper and Corbin Carroll.
Let's dive into my MLB player props for Tuesday, August 4.
MLB Player Props Today
- Joey Cantillo 6+ Strikeouts (53c, Kalshi)
- Bryce Harper 2+ Total Bases (49c, Kalshi)
- Corbin Carroll 2+ Total Bases (50c, Kalshi)
Mets vs Guardians Player Prop
The Guardians showed some rare aggression in adding at the trade deadline, acquiring Foster Griffin and Jo Adell among others. Perhaps their recent skid sparked the moves as they have lost seven of their last 10 games and are now clinging to the third AL Wildcard spot in a tight race.
Cantillo will get the start in the series opener against the Mets.
As he approaches 250 innings in his young career, one thing that Cantillo has proven he can do is pile up strikeouts, as he has averaged over a strikeout per inning in his career.
However, over the past 10 starts, he has averaged 6.8 strikeouts per game while recording a 2.94 FIP in that span.
He has not always worked deep in those starts, averaging a little over five innings per start and pitching four or less in his last two. However, he has still recorded six or more in seven of his last 10 starts, getting to seven or more in all seven.
Tonight, he will face a Mets team that ranks 14th in strikeout rate for the season against left-handed pitchers, but fifth over the past two weeks. That coincides with Juan Soto being on the IL, one of the league's most disciplined hitters.
Cantillo actually has a higher strikeout rate against right-handed batters at 27.6% this season. That should serve well against the Mets righties/switch hitters such as Francisco Lindor, Marcus Semien, and Bo Bichette, among others.
Pick: Joey Cantillo Over 5.5 Strikeouts
Nationals vs Phillies Player Prop
Last night, the Phillies were down 3-0 entering the bottom of the seventh inning. They took the lead on a grand slam from Derek Hill, the team's first of the season. Bryce Harper added some insurance with a two-run shot in the eighth inning, and the team would go on to win 6-3.
While he waited for his final at-bat last night, Harper extended his hitting streak to eight games. In that span, he has three homers, two doubles, and a triple. As a result, he has recorded two total bases in six of his last eight games.
With Zack Littell working as the bulk reliever for the Nationals, Harper's hitting streak and bases trend should continue. While he is 0-for-6 against the right-hander, Littell has given up 18 home runs and a .887 OPS to left-handed batters while recording just a 13.3% strikeout rate. He has a 5.31 ERA on the road and 6.12 expected ERA overall.
Whether Harper gets him tonight or not, the Nationals' bullpen is always fair game. Last night was the Phillies' fourth straight come-from-behind victory against the Nationals, and Harper has homered in the last two.
Pick: Bryce Harper Over 1.5 Total Bases
Padres vs Diamondbacks Player Prop
Randy Vasquez is another bulk relief candidate for tonight if the Padres want to avoid one turn against the top of the Diamondbacks order. One hitter he has struggled against is Carroll, who is 5-for-13 against him with three doubles. Four of his hits off Vasquez have had a 99 MPH or higher exit velocity.
Carroll has been quiet of late, and it may seem like he has had a quiet year by his standard. Yet, he still has 22 doubles, 12 triples, and 16 home runs to go along with an .813 OPS. He also ranks in the 80th percentile or better in bat speed, hard hit percentage, barrel rate, and average exit velocity.
Vasquez does not fare well in most metrics, giving up a 91.7 MPH average exit velocity and 11.7% barrel rate. He has allowed 28 of 41 extra-base hits to left-handed hitters, including 18 doubles and an .895 OPS. Both the metrics and prior history favor Carroll tonight, and I would like him to win this matchup tonight.
Pick: Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 Total Bases
