MLB Props Today | Odds, Picks for Shane McClanahan, Yu Darvish, More (Sunday, April 16)
Harry How/Getty Images. Pictured: Yu Darvish.
Aces are wild on this Sunday slate, and what better way to soak in all the talent on the mound than by rooting for strikeout props? Well, I’ve found three that have tremendous value, so let’s dive right into the top player props on Sunday.
MLB Player Props For Sunday, April 16
Shane Bieber Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-110)
|Guardians vs. Nationals|
|First Pitch||1:35 pm ET|
Bieber has gotten off to a solid start, but the punchouts have yet to flow like in years past. Through three starts, his strikeout rate sits in just the 34th percentile of all starting pitchers, which is a stark drop off from his rank in the 65th percentile last year.
Bieber’s stuff has not diminished, and he should be due for some positive regression in this matchup. He faces a Nationals lineup that surprisingly boasts the lowest strikeout rate in the majors.
However, Washington has a very young lineup, and there are multiple guys in that order that have average or below-average strikeout rates. So, with Bieber likely to get run support, we should see him work deep and rack up the strikeouts this afternoon.
Aside from the matchup, this is a number that is far too low for Bieber. He’s struck out at least six batters in 66.7% of his last 36 starts. That gives us implied odds of -200 that he will go over this afternoon.
Pick: Over 5.5 Strikeouts
Shane McClanahan Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+125)
|Rays vs. Blue Jays|
|First Pitch||1:37 pm ET|
Our second ace is the fireballing lefty from Tampa . McClanahan has looked nasty in his first three starts of the year. He comes into this matchup boasting a 1.59 ERA with a whiff rate ranking in the top 8% of starting pitchers.
While McClanahan has a tough matchup on paper, there are a few things pointing to another successful outing. The Blue Jays’ lineup is formidable, but there’s plenty of swing-and-miss potential that comes with its power. McClanahan has exposed that as he holds a 28.6% whiff rate and a 21.7% strikeout rate over the Jays’ order.
Those numbers include multiple strikeouts of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer, Bo Bichette and Matt Chapman. However, this matchup has also deflated his strikeout total to a number that is too low.
McClanahan has cruised over this total many times in his career. In 33 starts, he has gone over this total 23 times, which gives us implied odds of -230.
That is incredible line value that we cannot pass up.
Pick: Over 5.5 Strikeouts
Yu Darvish Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-135)
|Brewers vs. Padres|
|First Pitch||4:10 pm ET|
Darvish has not looked like his old self to this point. He struggled in the World Baseball Classic and has not been close to sharp in his first two starts of the MLB season.
This afternoon, the right-hander faces a Brewers lineup that can do damage in a hurry. The Brew Crew rank in the top 10 in wOBA, wRC+ and home runs. If Darvish’s command is not good again, he won’t be long for this out.
The one caveat of this Brewers team is that they will strike out quite a bit. Although, just like the pitchers above, the matchup factored too much into his strikeout total.
Darvish has struck out seven or fewer batters in 72. 2 percent of his last 36 starts. That gives us implied odds of -260.
Darvish has not given us any indication that he will go over this number, so fade him until he proves us wrong.
Pick: Under 7.5 Strikeouts
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