The San Diego Padres host the New York Mets on July 28, 2025. First pitch from PETCO Park is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on SNY.
Find my MLB betting preview and Mets vs Padres prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Mets vs Padres Prediction
- Mets vs Padres pick: Under 8
My Mets vs Padres best bet is Under 8 with the best odds currently on DraftKings. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mets vs Padres Odds
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -194 | 8 -111o / -109u | +109 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +158 | 8 -111o / -109u | -132 |
Mets vs Padres Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Frankie Montas (NYM) | Stat | RHP Dylan Cease (SDP) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | W-L | 3-10 |
| 0.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.2 |
| 4.62 / 4.86 | ERA /xERA | 4.59 / 3.48 |
| 4.55 / 3.81 | FIP / xFIP | 3.57 / 3.37 |
| 1.30 | WHIP | 1.30 |
| 15.9% | K-BB% | 20.9% |
| 42.3% | GB% | 35.6% |
| 104 | Stuff+ | 108 |
| 102 | Location+ | 100 |
The Betting Insider’s Mets vs Padres Preview
New York Mets Betting Preview
Frankie Montas is still in the early stages of his 2025 campaign, making just his sixth start of the year after a lengthy injury layoff.
Through 25.1 innings, the veteran right-hander owns a 3–1 record with a 4.62 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP. The stuff is still there; his fastball velocity has held steady in the mid-90s, and his splitter remains his best swing-and-miss weapon, generating a 41% whiff rate.
But command has been shaky at times for Montas, particularly early in counts, which has gotten him into trouble when pitching from behind.
When he’s in control, his splitter is deadly—and with San Diego’s aggressive approach at the plate, he could find more opportunities to stay ahead and put hitters away.
His xFIP sits at a very respectable 3.87, and he’s coming off of two solid outings against the Royals and Angels, where he combined to go 10.2 innings, allowing just 3 earned runs, 2 walks, while striking out 11.
San Diego Padres Betting Preview
It’s been an ugly 2025 campaign for the former Cy Young runner-up, with Dylan Cease entering tonight with a 3–10 record and a 4.59 ERA across 21 starts.
He’s struck out 144 batters in 113.2 innings, good for an 11.4 K/9, but has also walked 42 batters and surrendered 16 home runs.
However, Cease’s underlying metrics suggest he’s been a bit unlucky. His FIP, xFIP, and xERA all sit in the mid-3s, and he ranks in the 94th percentile in strikeout rate.
Opponents are hitting just .183 against his slider, and his fastball continues to sit comfortably in the upper 90s. Still, the Padres righty has struggled to finish innings when his control lapses, particularly with runners on base. With runners on base, opponents are hitting .295 with a .457 slugging percentage in 195 such plate appearances.
That said, the Mets have been one of the least productive teams in those situations, sitting 27th in batting average and 20th in OPS. Cease has been far more productive at home, posting a 3.48 ERA while holding batters to a .223 BA across 51.2 innings pitched. Pitcher-friendly weather conditions will aid both pitchers in an already pitcher-friendly ballpark.
Mets vs Padres Prediction, Betting Analysis
With these conditions, as well as the public bet splits and live movement, a few of The Betting Insider’s best MLB systems have been triggered for tonight's game. Check them out below!
System: Very against the public unders, RLM, home team recently going under (64% win rate, 21% ROI)
The under is receiving less than 30% of public bets
The total stayed the same, or moved down from open
The home team has gone under in at least 3 out of their last 5
Wind is NOT blowing outwards
Since 2020
Average temperature below 100 degrees
System: Fair weather with wind blowing in, RLM (60% win rate, 15% ROI)
Wind is blowing inwards
Average wind speed is at least 3mph
Average temperature is 70 degrees or less
The under is receiving no more than 55% of public bets
The total stayed the same or moved down from open
Total between 7 and 10
System: Late season, both teams tend to go under, non-division (60% win rate, 15% ROI)
Both teams have gone under in more than 50% of their games this season
Game #75 or later
Average temperature below 80 degrees
Non-division matchup
The home team has gone over in 1 or 2 of their last 5
The visitor has gone over at least once in their last 5
Pick: Under 8
Moneyline
We do not see value on either side of the Moneyline
Run Line (Spread)
We do not see value on either side of the Run Line
Over/Under
As mentioned, we are backing Under 8 runs
