The San Diego Padres host the New York Mets on June 6, 2026. First pitch from Petco Park is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on SDPA.
The Mets are favored by -124 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Padres are +105 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Mets vs Padres prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Mets vs Padres Prediction
- Mets vs Padres Pick: Under 7.5
My Mets vs Padres best bet is on the under. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mets vs Padres Odds
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -169 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -124 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +140 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | +105 |
- Mets vs Padres moneyline: Mets -124, Padres +105
- Mets vs Padres over/under: 7.5 (-115o / -105u)
- Mets vs Padres spread: Mets -1.5 (+140), Padres +1.5 (-169)
Mets vs Padres Probable Pitchers
| RHP Nolan McLean (NYM) | Stat | RHP Griffin Canning (SD) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | W-L | 0-4 |
| 1.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.1 |
| 4.21 / 3.36 | ERA / xERA | 7.16 / 4.96 |
| 3.80 / 3.45 | FIP / xFIP | 5.60 / 4.26 |
| 19.2% | K-BB% | 10.0% |
| 45.5% | GB% | 46.2% |
| .264 | BABIP | .306 |
| 107 | Stuff+ | 91 |
| 97 | Location+ | 90 |
Mets vs Padres MLB Betting Preview
New York Mets Betting Preview
The Mets roll into Saturday night riding a wave of positive momentum. The team has been on a decent run over its past eight games, coming out victorious in six of them.
That run includes a dominant 5-0 shutout victory over these same Padres last night.
The offense was sparked by excellent performances from Bo Bichette, who went 2-for-4 with an RBI, a double, and a triple, alongside catcher Luis Torrens, who finished 2-for-3 with two RBIs, a double, and a home run.
Tonight, Nolan McLean takes the mound for New York, who possesses some of the best Stuff+ metrics in the major leagues.
In his last outing, McLean baffled the Marlins, throwing 5.2 innings while giving up just two hits and one earned run with two strikeouts.
Though his surface ERA has experienced some bumps, his xERA is significantly lower, highlighting that he is a much better pitcher than the box scores suggest.
San Diego Padres Betting Preview
It has been tough sledding lately for the Padres, who have looked brutal over their last 11 outings, dropping 10 of them.
Finding runs has been an immense chore for San Diego, which has contributed to the under hitting on a 7.5-run line in nine of their last 12 games.
Looking to stabilize the ship tonight is a familiar face for New York fans: former Met Griffin Canning.
After tearing his Achilles last season, Canning has struggled mightily to regain his form, carrying an unsightly 7.16 ERA.
In his last start, he battled through 5.0 innings, surrendering six hits and three earned runs. However, there is reason to believe better fortune is on the horizon.
Canning's xERA sits at 4.96, significantly lower than his traditional ERA, suggesting he has run into some atrocious luck that should soon balance out.
Mets vs Padres Pick, Betting Analysis
The public may see Canning's 7.16 ERA and think the Mets are poised to clear this total by themselves.
However, the underlying numbers paint a completely different picture. Both starting pitchers have expected ERAs vastly superior to their current surface stats, meaning a double-sided pitching correction is very likely tonight.
When you compound two starters due for positive regression with a Padres offense that has gone under 7.5 runs in nine of their last 12 games, and insert a heavy 15 mph wind moving across a pitcher-friendly park, runs will be at a premium.
That's where BetLabs comes into play.
Our Night time Unders with Wind and Recency Bias system targets evening games where the public is often distracted by recent trends — like the Mets putting up a handful of runs or going over the total in six of their last 10 games.
By factoring in a heavy 15 mph wind gust profile at Petco Park and moderate evening temperatures, the system targets a soft edge where external conditions heavily suppress scoring, regardless of what recreational bettors believe.
Trust the metrics and fade the surface-level ERAs.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-102, DraftKings)
