The Toronto Blue Jays host the New York Yankees on Monday, July 21, 2025. First pitch from Rogers Centre is scheduled for 7:07 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on Sportsnet and YES.
Find my Yankees vs Blue Jays prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends and more.
My Yankees vs Blue Jays Prediction
- Yankees vs Blue Jays pick: Yankees Moneyline (-120 | Play to -125)
My Yankees vs Blue Jays best bet is the Yankees moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Yankees vs Blue Jays Odds
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +143 | 8 -114o / -107u | -119 |
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -175 | 8 -114o / -107u | -102 |
Yankees vs Blue Jays Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Carlos Rodon (NYY) | Stat | RHP Kevin Gausman (TOR) |
|---|---|---|
| 10-6 | W-L | 6-7 |
| 2.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.6 |
| 3.08 / 3.11 | ERA /xERA | 4.19 / 3.93 |
| 3.59 / 3.56 | FIP / xFIP | 3.86 / 4.08 |
| 1.00 | WHIP | 1.16 |
| 19.7% | K-BB% | 15.5% |
| 41.3% | GB% | 34.4% |
| 104 | Stuff+ | 101 |
| 97 | Location+ | 104 |
Tony Sartori’s Yankees vs Blue Jays Preview
New York Yankees Betting Preview: Big Bats, Strong Arms
Carlos Rodón has been one of the most underrated pitchers in the American League this season. Through 20 starts, Rodón is 10-6 with a 3.08 ERA and 1.00 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are equally impressive, as the southpaw ranks in the 82nd percentile or higher in expected ERA (xERA), expected batting average (xBA), whiff rate and strikeout rate. Following Rodón is a bullpen that is due for positive regression.
Despite poor surface-level stats, New York’s relief corps ranks ninth in expected fielding independent pitching (xFIP).
This pitching staff should also receive plenty of run support. Entering this matchup, the Yankees rank first in runs scored per game, slugging percentage, OPS and home runs.
That success at the plate is likely to continue against Kevin Gausman.
Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview: Gausman Seeing Ghosts
Through 220 combined plate appearances against Gausman, this current Yankees roster boasts a .256 xBA, .493 xSLG and .371 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA). On the other hand, Gausman is 0-3 with a 9.78 ERA over his past six starts against New York.
Gausman has also struggled this season, posting a 4.19 ERA and 1.16 WHIP through 19 starts. He currently ranks in the bottom half of the league in xERA, xBA and barrel rate.
Toronto has a solid lineup, but it pales in comparison to New York’s. That gives both the starting pitching and hitting edge to the Yankees, which is more than enough to justify backing their -120 moneyline.
Yankees vs Blue Jays Prediction, Betting Analysis
There are two reasons why the Yankees’ moneyline is as short as it is: Toronto is at home and has a bullpen advantage. However, the bullpen edge is more than offset by New York’s superior lineup and starting pitching.
That leaves home field. However, the Yankees have won three of their past four road games and can use those hitting and starting pitching advantages to extend that streak Monday.
Pick: Yankees moneyline (-120 | Play to -125)
Moneyline
As mentioned, I'm betting on the Yankees moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
I also like New York to cover, but I find more value in just taking the outright moneyline price.
Over/Under
I lean toward the over, but I don't want to fade Rodon.
