NLCS Game 4 Odds, Picks, Predictions for Padres vs Phillies

NLCS Game 4 Odds, Picks, Predictions for Padres vs Phillies article feature image

Elsa/Getty Images. Pictured: Phillies fans cheer in front of Manny Machado.

Padres vs. Phillies Game 4 Odds

Padres Odds-110
Phillies Odds-110
Time7:45 p.m. ET
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The Phillies won a tightly contested affair on Friday night to take a 2-1 lead in the NLCS behind the arm of Ranger Suarez, some timely hitting and a bullpen that held serve in the later innings.

Saturday's Game 4 is obviously crucial, but it's also probably the most unpredictable. The Padres will sent Mike Clevinger to the mound for the first time since his blow-up start against the Dodgers. The Phillies, meanwhile, will go with Bailey Falter for at least one turn through the order in what will amount to something close to a bullpen day.

Can Philadelphia move one win away from the World Series, or will San Diego even things up?

Here are our best bets from Saturday night's NLCS Game 4 between the Padres and Phillies.

MLB Odds & Picks

Click on a pick to skip ahead
Phillies Moneyline (-110)
Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 Total Bases (+138)

Phillies Moneyline (-110)

Odds via DraftKings

Jules Posner: Mike Clevinger will get the start for the Padres against Bailey Falter for the Phillies. Falter will be making his first appearance of the postseason while Clevinger will try to redeem himself after a tough NLDS.

Since the All-Star break, Clevinger’s production has fallen off a cliff and he also brings a road ERA, FIP and xFIP of over 5.00 into tomorrow’s Game 4 start.

The Padres’ offense has consistently been one of the best road units against left-handed pitcher, but it is concerning that they struggled to get anything going against Ranger Suarez in Game 3.

Additionally, the Padres bullpen hasn’t given up a run this series. If Clevinger fails to work deep into the game, that scoreless streak could be put at risk if the bullpen has to cover a majority of the game.

The Phillies offense has been the second-best offense at home against right handers in the second half. They also have demonstrated a knack for timely hits in this series. Bryce Harper has been hitting out of his mind and although the Phillies aren’t piling on the hits, they’re making the hits count when they get them.

Falter will make his postseason debut, but he’ll also be facing a team that hasn’t seen him before. That could be a huge advantage for a pitcher who not only posted a 3.00 ERA from August to the end of the season, but also has some deception to his delivery.

The Phillies pitching staff imploded in Game 2, but they have been fairly reliable in the postseason overall. They are hard to trust, but they’ve gotten it done for the most part.

The Phillies are starting to look like the team that is catching all the breaks and they may be catching another in getting to face Clevinger in a pivotal Game 4. Philadelphia has gotten to Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove, both of whom are considerably better pitchers. The Phillies seem to be getting hot at the right time.

This game opened as a coin flip at -110 a piece, but some books saw the lines move in favor of the Phillies. Although this game is truly a coin flip, Falter may be the deciding factor if he can get through the Padres order a couple of times.

It’s a tough call, but the Phillies moneyline is the play here and should be played to -120.

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Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 Total Bases (+138)

Odds via BetRivers

Doug Ziefel: Kyle Schwarber made his presence felt immediately Friday night as he led off Game 3 with a homer. Although, he was not done after that, as he picked up another base hit. Things finally seemed to click for the NL regular season home-run leader, and now he gets an even better matchup today.

Mike Clevinger and Schwarber have only faced off three times, and the one ball Schwarber put in play was at 96.8 mph. However, more data suggests he will get on the board against sunshine.

Lefties hit Clevinger very hard this season, as they accounted for 13 of the 20 homers he allowed. And what’s great for us is that they are due for even more positive regression.

Clevinger has a 5.29 FIP against lefties and a hard-hit rate of over 35 percent. Those are not the numbers with which you want to go up against a hot Schwarber.

This line is a tick higher than the rest of the market as it offers much more value than Schwarber, going over 0.5 total bases. Of course, we all know about Schwarber’s power, so if he makes contact, extra bases are likely, but it also wouldn’t surprise me one bit if he goes yard for the second straight day.

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