The Baltimore Orioles head to the Bronx to face the New York Yankees on September 26, 2025. First pitch from Yankee Stadium is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on MLB Network.
Find my MLB pick and Orioles vs Yankees prediction below, as well as odds, probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Orioles vs Yankees Prediction
- Orioles vs Yankees picks: Yankees ML
My Orioles vs Yankees prediction is Yankees moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Orioles vs Yankees Odds
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -165 | 8 -115o / -105u | +125 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +140 | 8 -115o / -105u | -150 |
Orioles vs Yankees Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Trevor Rogers (BAL) | Stat | RHP Will Warren (NYY) |
|---|---|---|
| 9-2 | W-L | 8-8 |
| 3.9 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.1 |
| 1.35 / 3.08 | ERA /xERA | 4.35 / 4.56 |
| 2.42 / 3.54 | FIP / xFIP | 4.01 / 3.93 |
| 0.87 | WHIP | 1.37 |
| 18.1% | K-BB% | 14.5% |
| 46.4% | GB% | 42.9% |
| 93 | Stuff+ | 101 |
| 105 | Location+ | 100 |
Orioles vs Yankees Prediction, Betting Analysis
This system tracks modest favorites in divisional games where the market slightly shifts toward them, often due to subtle edge signals not captured by public models.
For the Orioles vs Yankees, divisional games bring familiarity and tighter matchups. Minor moneyline movement (−33 to −1) from open to close shows quiet but meaningful sharp action.
Pythagorean advantage (1.6% to 500%) confirms underlying team quality without large margins in the prior game. Opening lines between −145 and −115 suggest limited public interest, creating pricing inefficiencies.
Totals between 7–9.5 help avoid extremes that can skew results.
The strategy rides light market momentum in tight, competitive spots where fundamental metrics signal a long-term edge.
In addition, the Yankees have been solid at home, while the Orioles have struggled on the road.
A moneyline pick seems to be the move here.
Pick: Yankees ML
Moneyline
Taking the Yankees seems like a play here.
Run Line (Spread)
No play on the run line.
Over/Under
Not seeing great value on the over/under.
