The Miami Marlins (65-76) host the Philadelphia Phillies (82-59) on September 6, 2025. First pitch from loanDepot park is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on NBCS-PH.
Find my MLB betting preview and Phillies vs Marlins prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
Our Phillies vs Marlins Prediction
- Phillies vs Marlins pick: F5 Under 4.5
Our Phillies vs Marlins best bet is on the under total runs in the first five innings. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Phillies vs Marlins Odds
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +115 | 8 -110o / -110u | -150 |
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -140 | 8 -110o / -110u | +125 |
Phillies vs Marlins Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Jesus Luzardo (PHI) | Stat | RHP Sandy Alcantara (MIA) |
|---|---|---|
| 12-6 | W-L | 8-11 |
| 4.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.5 |
| 4.05/3.47 | ERA /xERA | 5.66/4.76 |
| 3.03/3.33 | FIP / xFIP | 4.22/4.30 |
| 1.28 | WHIP | 1.32 |
| 19.9% | K-BB% | 10.5% |
| 43.1% | GB% | 46.0% |
| 101 | Stuff+ | 109 |
| 110 | Location+ | 101 |
Phillies vs Marlins Prediction, Betting Analysis
Philadelphia sits as a -150 favorite on the moneyline, while Miami is priced at +125 to score the upset. The full-game total is 8 runs.
The Phillies rolled to a 9-3 win in Friday’s opener behind home runs from Bryson Stott and Brandon Marsh. The NL East leaders have now taken seven of nine meetings with the Marlins this season.
On the mound, Jesus Luzardo gets the call for Philadelphia. The left-hander, who pitched for Miami from 2021-24, is looking for his first win in his third career start against his old club. Opposite him is Sandy Alcantara, a familiar foe for Phillies hitters. The former Cy Young winner owns a 3.78 ERA across 21 starts versus Philadelphia, the most he has against any opponent.
The betting angle here comes from Evan Abrams’ “Low Total Unders with Line Movement (F5)” system. This model targets early-game unders when the market signals pitching control. Saturday’s game checks several boxes:
The full-game total sits at just 8 runs, a modest number that has shown downward pressure in the market.
The first-five innings line is set at 4.5, with pricing staying in the sharp range without inflated juice.
Both starters have the capability to work efficiently early, and Citizens Bank Park is projected to have mild wind conditions that help suppress offense without dramatically skewing totals.
That combination points toward value on the F5 Under 4.5, banking on Luzardo and Alcantara to settle in and keep the scoring quiet through the early frames.
Pick: F5 Under 4.5 (-125, BetMGM)
Phillies vs Marlins Betting Trends
