The Milwaukee Brewers host the Pittsburgh Pirates on August 11, 2025. First pitch from American Family Field is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on SportsNet PT.
Find my MLB betting preview and Pirates vs Brewers prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports, and more.
My Pirates vs Brewers Prediction
- Pirates vs Brewers pick: Jose Quintana Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-105, DraftKings)
My Pirates vs Brewers best bet is Jose Quintana to record more than 4.5 strikeouts. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Pirates vs Brewers Odds
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -121 | 8.5 -121 / +100 | +168 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -101 | 8.5 -121 / +100 | -207 |
Pirates vs Brewers Projected Starting Pitchers
| Andrew Heaney (PIT) | Stat | Jose Quintana (MIL) |
|---|---|---|
| 5-9 | W-L | 9-4 |
| 0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.6 |
| 4.77/5.41 | ERA /xERA | 3.57/4.78 |
| 5.32/4.79 | FIP / xFIP | 4.72/4.62 |
| 1.27 | WHIP | 1.34 |
| 9.0 | K-BB% | 7.8 |
| 36.6 | GB% | 44.7 |
| 93 | Stuff+ | 86 |
| 103 | Location+ | 105 |
Doug Ziefel’s Pirates vs Brewers Preview
Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview: Tough Matchup for Offense
The Pittsburgh Pirates come into this series off a four-game split against the Cincinnati Reds. In that series, we saw them flash some stellar pitching and timely offense.
However, they're in for a much tougher matchup against Jose Quintana and the Brewers' pitching staff.
Pittsburgh is the worst team in baseball against left-handed pitching, as it ranks last in wRC+ while holding the second-highest strikeout and ground-ball rate. While Quintana is far from a power lefty, those two trends should work well in his favor tonight.
Quintana's ground-ball rate sits in the 64th percentile, and despite holding a below-average CSW, he has strikeout upside tonight. We know the Pirates strike out often against lefties, and that stems from a low swing rate combined with a high whiff rate.
That means they're often taking strikes and missing when they do decide to pull the trigger. Quintana is a strike thrower, as his walk rate is elite. He tosses first pitch strikes more than 60% of the time.
We saw Quintana record seven strikeouts in his last outing against Atlanta, and it wouldn't be shocking to see him replicate that performance in an even better matchup tonight.
Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview: Best Team in Baseball
The Milwaukee Brewers are the best team in baseball. They just completed a three-game sweep of the New York Mets and sit at 73 wins. No other team in baseball has even eclipsed 70 wins yet.
They're the smallest market in baseball, but it's the little things they do that help they remain successful, like playing great defense, running the bases well and putting the ball in play often.
The Brewers are going to do each of those things exceedingly well tonight against Pittsburgh, as Andrew Heaney is getting this team at the wrong time.
Milwaukee ranks third in wRC+, second in batting average and has the lowest strikeout rate in baseball over the last 30 days against left-handed pitching.
Milwaukee is fully expected to do damage tonight against Heaney, and it could be amplified by the Pirates' bullpen situation.
Pittsburgh's bullpen is taxed after its series finale yesterday, so we could see Heaney be left out to dry as the Pirates choose to fight another day.
Pirates vs Brewers Prediction, Betting Analysis
Going back to Quintana, he has a tremendous matchup in front of him tonight, and the strikeout upside is there.
While he's only gone over this total in 29% of his starts this season, Quintana has a very consistent floor of three to four strikeouts.
This is clearly a spot where we should see him exceed that, and the early run support from the Brewers' lineup will allow him a larger window to keep racking up the punchouts tonight.
Pick: Jose Quintana Over 4.5 Strikeouts
Moneyline
I have no play on the moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
I also like the Brewers run line at plus money tonight.
Over/Under
I have no angle on the total.
