PropBetGuy’s MLB Player Prop: Make This Drew Rasmussen Bet (Thursday, July 14)

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Drew Rasmussen Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-128)

There hasn't been a team that has used their bullpen more than over the last five seasons than the Tampa Bay Rays.

Apart from the COVID-shortened 2020 season, Tampa has ranked in the bottom two of innings pitched per game for starters each year. While a lot of that has to do with the Rays' use of the opener, they also employ a few starters who don’t pitch deep into the game.

A prime example is Drew Rasmussen, who has only pitched past the fifth inning in three of his 24 career starts. And given his pedestrian strikeout totals as a starter (85 strikeouts across 108.2 innings), I love the under on his strikeout line tonight.

Rasmussen has gone under this line in nine of his 14 starts. But if you split his outings based on his opponents’ strikeout percentage versus right-handed pitching, a trend develops:

• Against teams in the top 15 of strikeout rate versus RHP: 37 strikeouts in 32 innings — under this line in 3-of-7 starts
• Against teams in the bottom 15: 20 strikeouts in 34.2 innings — under this line in 6-of-7 starts

Rasmussen just doesn’t possess a high-end strikeout arsenal, as evidenced by a 25.1% called + swinging strike rate that rates 119th out of 143 pitchers with at least 50 innings.

Against the Red Sox, who possess the seventh-lowest strikeout rate versus right-handers (20.6%), the Rays' right-hander should struggle to rack up the Ks.

In only five innings, I have Rasmussen projected at a bit fewer than four strikeouts.

Pick: Drew Rasmussen Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-128 · Play to -145)

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