PropBetGuy’s MLB Player Prop Pick: How to Bet Corbin Burnes on Monday

PropBetGuy’s MLB Player Prop Pick: How to Bet Corbin Burnes on Monday article feature image

Dustin Satloff/Getty Images. Pictured: Corbin Burnes #39 of the Milwaukee Brewers.

  • One of MLB's elite strikeout pitchers toes the rubber on Monday as Milwaukee's Corbin Burnes faces the division-rival St. Louis Cardinals.
  • Burnes boasts a strong performance history against St. Louis, but should you eat the chalk and bet him to go over his 7.5-strikeout total?
  • PropBetGuy explains how he's betting Burnes' strikeout total versus St. Louis on Monday night.

PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite MLB plays of the day, and will track all his bets in The Action Network app.

Corbin Burnes Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-115)

PropOver 7.5 Strikeouts (-115)
MatchupCardinals at Brewers
Time8:10 p.m. ET
Books Available

Sometimes with player props, it’s easy to overlook the chalky play. But today, I see value on the over for baseball’s premier strikeout artist, Corbin Burnes.

Last season’s National League Cy Young Award winner led MLB in strikeouts per nine innings (minimum 100 innings). This season, he ranks fifth in the same category (11.4 strikeouts per nine innings). Burnes has eclipsed the current line (7.5 strikeouts) in seven of his 13 starts.

Today, he faces a familiar opponent in the NL Central-rival St. Louis Cardinals. Burnes has pitched very successfully against St. Louis, including a seven-inning, 11-strikeout performance earlier this season. He also racked up 28 K's in 22 innings pitched against the Cardinals during the 2021 season.

Burnes boasts a 40% strikeout rate against St. Louis and has limited Cardinals batters to a tidy .279 on-base percentage. The Cardinals’ strikeout rate has remained below league average, but I do not place much stock in that when assessing their chances versus an elite pitcher.

I like Burnes to continue his domination of the St. Louis lineup — I have the flamethrower projected at 9.0 strikeouts.

Pick: Over 7.5 Strikeouts -115 · Playable to -130

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