PropBetGuy’s MLB Player Prop Picks: Fade Lucas Giolito? (Wednesday, June 28)
Melissa Tamez/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: White Sox pitcher Lucas Giolito.
PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite MLB plays of the day and will track all his bets in the Action Network app.
Lucas Giolito Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-132)
|Matchup||White Sox vs. Angels|
|Time||9:38 p.m. ET|
Lucas Giolito has gone under this strikeout line in nine of his 16 starts, including five of his eight games pitched on the road. And despite him posting a string of some quality starts, I’m looking to fade the big right-hander on his strikeout line tonight.
Giolito has struggled away from home this season with a 4.85 xFIP and 9.3% walk rate, compared to 3.68 and 4.6% at home, respectively. And while he’s pitched to a 1.50 ERA in June, his 3.74 xFIP indicates he’s a candidate for regression.
The Angels should serve as a tougher matchup for Giolito, as they now have the roster flexibility to go with a lefty-heavy lineup. The eight-year veteran is more susceptible to southpaws in the box, owning a 5.16 xFIP and .329 oBA against them.
But this is a strikeout prop, and I see the Angels being undervalued in the market.
The Halos strikeout at an average 22.9% clip against right-handers this season — and they've been even better over the last two weeks at 21.2%. However, I see room for that percentage to drop in the coming weeks given the flurry of roster moves the Angels have made over the last few days.
Added to the active roster are Eduardo Escobar and David Fletcher, both of whom strike out at a well below-average rate against right-handed pitching. Even Mike Moustakas represents an upgrade over the demoted Jared Walsh.
I like to have multiple outs for my under bets (no pun intended) — the Angels hitting Giolito hard enough to chase him, or just simply making enough contact to avoid strikeouts are both in play tonight.
I have Giolito projected around 5.8 strikeouts tonight and would play this line comfortably to -150.