PropBetGuy’s MLB Player Prop: Betting Value on Gerrit Cole’s Pitching Outs (Friday, July 29)

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Gerrit Cole Over 19.5 Pitching Outs (-125)

When you sign a $324 million contract to pitch for the New York Yankees, you’re going to be under the proverbial microscope. While pundits will point out where Gerrit Cole has struggled this season, one thing is for certain: the Yankees' ace has excelled pitching at home.

Among the 168 pitchers with at least 25 innings recorded at home, Cole ranks 14th in wOBA (.235), third in xFIP (2.23) and 21st in avoiding Hard Contact (24.5%). This has led to a 2.05 ERA across his 10 home starts, eclipsing this line of 19.5 pitching outs in six of his last eight outings at Yankee Stadium.

Cole’s control is also noticeably better at home, with a 3.3% Walk Rate (compared to a subpar 10.3% on the road) as he pumps the zone with a 67.5% Strike Rate (MLB average is 63.9%).

Tonight makes for an excellent matchup for Cole to pitch deep into this game against an aggressive Royals team whose approach to hitting is to swing early and often. As a team, Kansas City sees the fewest pitches per plate appearance (3.77), driven by their fourth-highest Zone Swing Rate (72%).

And lately, when the Royals have put the ball in play, it’s been weak contact. Over the last month, Kansas City ranks 23rd in Hard Contact (28.4%), 24th in ISO (.130), and 25th in home runs (21). Cole allows a stingy .189 Batting Average Against at home, and without the threat of the long ball, he should be in for an easy night.

I have the five-time All Star projected to finish the seventh inning before he reaches 105 pitches tonight.

Pick: Gerrit Cole Over 19.5 Pitching Outs (-125) | Play to -135

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