PropBetGuy’s MLB Player Prop: How to Bet Lucas Giolito vs. Orioles (Wednesday, Aug. 24)
David Berding/Getty Images. Pictured: Chicago White Sox starting pitcher Lucas Giolito.
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Lucas Giolito — Under 17.5 Pitching Outs
|Prop||Giolito — Under 17.5 Outs (-130)|
|Matchup||White Sox vs. Orioles|
|Time||7:05 p.m. ET|
It’s safe to say the White Sox haven’t lived up to lofty preseason expectations.
While there’s been plenty of finger pointing to go around, one of the surprises has been the poor performance of Lucas Giolito. Coming into the season as the presumptive ace, the hurler has pitched to a disappointing 5.34 ERA.
However, his season statistics don’t tell the full story, because since the beginning of June, Giolito is running with a 6.32 ERA overall. He has stayed under this line for total pitching outs in eightof his 14 starts during that span.
One of the right-hander’s issues is he’s not missing as many bats. His 12% swinging strike rate is down by more than 3% versus his rate over each of the previous three seasons. This likely can be attributed to diminished spin rates on each of his three main pitches: four-seam fastball, changeup and slider.
The resurgent Orioles have acquitted themselves well at the plate of late. As a team, they’re boasting a .738 OPS and 111 wRC+ versus right-handed pitchers that ranks eighth and fourth, respectively. And against the four-seam fastball and changeup (which Giolito uses 72% of the time), Baltimore’s wRC ranks 11th and 5th over the last month of play.
With the playoff chase heightening for both teams, this game should be managed with short leashes. I have Giolito capped at 16 outs.
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