PropBetGuy’s MLB Player Prop Pick: Brewers’ Eric Lauer Worth Fading Against Reds (June 17)

PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite MLB plays of the day, and will track all his bets in The Action Network app.

Eric Lauer was a revelation for the Brewers' already stellar starting rotation to start the season. In his first five starts, the lefty pitched to a 1.82 ERA across 29.2 innings.

Since then, Lauer has come back down to Earth, posting a 4.78 ERA in 32 innings across six starts. Coinciding with his drop in production has been a downtick in both velocity and spin rate of his primary pitches (four-seam fastball and slider).

Away from home this season, Lauer’s ERA stands at 5.05, staying under this line in five of his seven starts. And while a few weeks ago we might have scoffed at tonight’s matchup, the Reds offense has been mashing of late. Over the last month, the Reds have the 11th-best OPS (.745), including a whopping .872 OPS against lefties over that span.

The Cincinnati offensive resurgence over the last month has come with a 34% Hard-Hit Rate (third-highest). Lauer has been hit hard, with a 33.3% Hard-Hit rate, which ranks 37th of 168 starting pitchers.

I like the Reds to chase Lauer early tonight – I have the Brewers southpaw only finishing five innings.

Pick: Eric Lauer Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-110) | Play to (-125)

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