PropBetGuy’s MLB Player Prop Pick: Brewers’ Eric Lauer Worth Fading Against Reds (June 17)
John Fisher/Getty Images. Pictured: Eric Lauer
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Eric Lauer Under 16.5 Pitching Outs
|Prop||Eric Lauer Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-110)|
|Matchup||Brewers vs. Reds|
|Time||6:40 p.m. ET|
Eric Lauer was a revelation for the Brewers’ already stellar starting rotation to start the season. In his first five starts, the lefty pitched to a 1.82 ERA across 29.2 innings.
Since then, Lauer has come back down to Earth, posting a 4.78 ERA in 32 innings across six starts. Coinciding with his drop in production has been a downtick in both velocity and spin rate of his primary pitches (four-seam fastball and slider).
Away from home this season, Lauer’s ERA stands at 5.05, staying under this line in five of his seven starts. And while a few weeks ago we might have scoffed at tonight’s matchup, the Reds offense has been mashing of late. Over the last month, the Reds have the 11th-best OPS (.745), including a whopping .872 OPS against lefties over that span.
The Cincinnati offensive resurgence over the last month has come with a 34% Hard-Hit Rate (third-highest). Lauer has been hit hard, with a 33.3% Hard-Hit rate, which ranks 37th of 168 starting pitchers.
I like the Reds to chase Lauer early tonight – I have the Brewers southpaw only finishing five innings.
Pick: Eric Lauer Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-110) | Play to (-125)
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