PropBetGuy’s MLB Player Prop Pick: Fade Blue Jays’ Yusei Kikuchi (Wednesday, August 2)

PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite MLB plays of the day and will track all his bets in the Action Network app.

Yusei Kikuchi (TOR) Under 16.5 Outs -120

For my favorite prop of the day, we’re headed north of the border to Toronto, with the Blue Jays squaring off against the Orioles. In this AL East clash, I’m keying in on Yusei Kikuchi’s outs prop as my favorite play of the day.

Kikuchi is coming off a strong six-inning performance against the Dodgers. However, with the southpaw staying under this line in 14 of his 21 starts, I’m counting on that performance being more of an outlier than indicative of future success.

Kikuchi has been solid this season with a 3.79 ERA, but he has struggled to give the Blue Jays consistent length on a start-to-start basis. The Jays hurler registers 4.05 pitches per plate appearance, which is the 17^th highest mark amongst 106 qualifiers. As a team, the Orioles exhibit a patient approach, with 3.94 pitches per plate appearance (the eighth highest in baseball).

The Orioles have also been hitting lefties well all season: Their 112 wRC+ and a .766 OPS both rank in the top 9 (and even better over the last 30 days:  130 wRC+ and a .844 OPS). In each of Kikuchi's two starts against them, the Orioles chased him before the end of the fifth inning.

The Jays have been cautious with Kikuchi’s pitch count all season, and coming off a season-high 103-pitch effort, we might see a quicker hook today. I have Kikuchi projected at 15 outs today and would play this line to -140.

Pick: Yusei Kikuchi Under 16.5 Outs -110  | Play to -140