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PropBetGuy’s MLB Player Prop Pick for Friday: Bet Brad Keller Pitching Outs (July 1)

PropBetGuy’s MLB Player Prop Pick for Friday: Bet Brad Keller Pitching Outs (July 1) article feature image

William Purnell/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Brad Keller.

  • Prop Bet Guy breaks down his best prop pick for Friday's MLB slate.
  • He's targeting Brad Keller's pitching outs prop against the struggling Tigers.
  • Check out his pick and analysis below.

PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite MLB plays of the day, and will track all his bets in The Action Network app.

Brad Keller Pitching Outs

PropBrad Keller Over 15.5 Pitching Outs (-130)
MatchupRoyals vs. Tigers
Time7:10 p.m. ET
Books Available

I’ll start off by saying, this one might not be pretty. After a 2021 in which Brad Keller was statistically one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball, he has progressed in 2022 to “below average.” His 4.56 ERA and 4.24 xERA won’t impress much, and his baseball savant page is still littered with blue.

But what Keller does for the Royals is eat innings. He’s eclipsed this line in 10 of 14 starts, including four of six on the road. He’s coming off a poor start, only lasting 3.2 innings. However, Keller has bounced back nicely after poor starts this season, as he has yet to fail to finish six innings in consecutive starts.

The big righty’s Hard-Hit Rate has dropped back to a manageable 39% after reaching an untenable 45% last season. His arsenal primarily consists of his slider and two iterations of a fastball (four-seamer and sinker).

Tonight is one of the rare spots where Keller should see an advantage against his opponent. No matter how you shake it, the Tigers have struggled offensively this season. In June, they ranked last in both OPS and wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Against Keller’s three main pitches, they rank 29th (slider), 30th (four-seam fastball), and 25th (sinker) in wRC+ per 100 plate appearances.

As the Royals embark on a stretch in which they play 18 games in 17 days, Keller should be relied on to give the team some length. Even if it’s not the cleanest outing, I have the fifth-year pro finishing six innings tonight.

Pick: Brad Keller Over 15.5 Pitching Outs (-130) | Playable to 16.5

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