PropBetGuy’s MLB Player Prop Pick for Saturday: How to Bet Jordan Montgomery (July 9)
Photo by Nick Cammett/Getty Images. Pictured: Jordan Montgomery (Yankees)
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Jordan Montgomery Pitching Outs
|Prop||Jordan Montgomery Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-110)|
|Matchup||Yankees vs. Red Sox|
|Time||7:15 p.m. ET (FOX)|
I’ve been a proponent of Jordan Montgomery being undervalued by sportsbooks this season with his outs props. The big left-hander is in the midst of a career campaign, with a 3.19 ERA across 90.1 innings.
He’s gone over this line in 10 of his 16 outings, including seven in a row prior to faltering in his last game against the Guardians.
However, tonight represents his toughest matchup of the season: against the Red Sox at Fenway.
The Red Sox have been scorching hot against left-handed pitching. Over the last two months, they lead all of baseball in team OPS (.859), wOBA (.370) and wRC+ (140) against southpaws. And when you narrow it down to plate appearances at Fenway, the numbers get even stronger (.917, .391, 150).
Montgomery has struggled against Boston’s hitters over his career, allowing a .285 batting average against. And while his road ERA of 3.19 is a mirror image of how he performs in home games, he’s stayed under this line in five of eight starts away from Yankee Stadium.
With both Michael King and JP Sears available in the bullpen to pitch multiple innings, Yankees manager Aaron Boone likely doesn’t allow Montgomery to work his way out of trouble the third time through the batting order.
In what should be another hotly-contested rivalry game, I have Monty only completing five innings.
Pick: Jordan Montgomery Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-110) | Play to -125
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