PropBetGuy’s MLB Player Prop Pick for Tuesday: How to Fade Kyle Hendricks vs. Brewers (July 5)
Nuccio DiNuzzo/Getty Images. Pictured: Kyle Hendricks
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Kyle Hendricks Pitching Outs
|Prop||Kyle Hendricks Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (+105)|
|Matchup||Cubs vs. Brewers|
|Time||8:10 p.m. ET|
Kyle Hendricks has been a mainstay in the Cubs rotation for nearly a decade. However, after a subpar 2021 season, the nine-year vet is once again faltering in 2022. Hendricks is pitching to a 4.76 ERA, and has stayed under this line in 11 of his 15 starts.
The peripheral stats don’t paint a pretty picture, either. Hendricks xERA of 5.05, hard hit rate of 38.8%, and xWOBA of .364 are all the worst marks of his career. Typically a contact-oriented pitcher who relies on soft grounders, the Professor’s 37.3% ground ball rate is also the lowest of his MLB tenure.
And tonight’s matchup won’t be any easier for him. This is his fourth matchup against Milwaukee this season, and Hendricks has failed to finish six innings in the previous three (10 runs and 18 hits allowed in 14 1/3 innings). The Brewers have been crushing righties to the tune of an .863 OPS over the last two weeks (the highest mark in baseball).
Plus, the Brewers league-leading 4.07 pitches per plate appearance should help to saturate Hendricks’ pitch count.
Overall, it’s a tough matchup for the Cubs’ starter. I have Hendricks only finishing five innings tonight, making under 17.5 outs a top play, especially at plus odds.
Pick: Kyle Hendricks Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (+105) | Playable to -125
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