PropBetGuy’s MLB Player Prop Pick for Tuesday: How to Bet Astros’ Jose Urquidy
Elsa/Getty Images. Pictured: José Urquidy.
- PropBetGuy is targeting Jose Urquidy for his MLB player prop pick on Tuesday.
- Urquidy has a tough matchup against the Mets with a rested bullpen behind him.
- Check out PropBetGuy's pick and analysis below.
PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite MLB plays of the day, and will track all his bets in The Action Network app.
Jose Urquidy Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-105)
| Prop | Jose Urquidy Under 16.5 Pitching Outs(-105) |
| Matchup | Mets vs. Astros |
| Time | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| Books Available |  |
After a breakout 2021 campaign in which he helped to stabilize the back-end of the Astros rotation, Jose Urquidy has yet to replicate that success this season. In 12 starts thus far, he’s pitched to a 4.99 ERA and a bottom-barrel 6.16 xERA. His Hard-Hit Rate, which sat at a respectable 36% last season, has ballooned to 46% in 2022.
He’s stayed under this line of 16.5 pitching outs in seven of 12 starts. However, four of the five instances in which he recorded at least 17 outs were against bottom-seven offenses (in OPS against right-handed pitching). The Mets tout a .751 OPS versus righties, the third-highest mark in the league.
Urquidy’s fastball is getting punished this season, with hitters sporting a .317 average against it. And as for his go-to put-away pitches, his changeup and curveball, the Mets are second and 10th respectively in wRC against each.
With an off-day yesterday, the Astros bullpen should be fresh and ready to be deployed if needed. I have the Mets getting to Urquidy early and often, keeping him capped at five innings pitched.
Pick: Jose Urquidy Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-105) | Play to (-125)
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