PropBetGuy’s MLB Player Prop Pick: Mariners’ Logan Gilbert Worth Fading Against Twins (June 16)
Abbie Parr/Getty Images. Pictured: Logan Gilbert
PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite MLB plays of the day, and will track all his bets in The Action Network app.
Logan Gilbert Strikeouts
|Prop||Logan Gilbert Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-140)|
|Matchup||Twins vs. Mariners|
|Time||10:10 p.m. ET|
Logan Gilbert has been a stabilizing force in the Mariners’ rotation since his debut last season. In his first full campaign in the bigs, the right-hander has pitched to a 2.41 ERA, with 70 strikeouts in 71 innings. And despite his effectiveness, he’s stayed under this line in 7 of his 12 starts.
What’s most noticeable about Gilbert are his reverse splits – he is pretty dominant against left-handed batters, holding them to a .228 wOBA and a 30% strikeout rate. When facing righties, those stats skew the other way, with a .295 wOBA and 21% strikeout rate. In four of the five games in which he rang up at least seven hitters, Gilbert faced at least five lefties in the lineup.
And this is why I’m looking to fade the sophomore tonight. The Twins are likely to start only three or four lefties, with one being Luis Arraez, who owns an 8.3% strikeout rate (third-lowest among qualified hitters). And while the Twins’ strikeout rate against righties has been roughly league average over the last 30 days, they’ve been mashing, with an .805 OPS.
I’m loving the under on Gilbert tonight, and would play it to -150.
Pick: Logan Gilbert Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-140) | Playable to -150
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