PropBetGuy’s MLB Player Prop Pick for Monday: How to Bet Jordan Montgomery Against the Athletics (June 27)
Cole Burston/Getty Images. Pictured: Jordan Montgomery #47 of the New York Yankees.
- Jordan Montgomery has been impressive this season, and he faces the A's on Monday night in the Bronx.
- PropBetGuy is targeting Montgomery for his Monday prop pick.
- Check out his best bet and analysis below.
PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite MLB plays of the day, and will track all his bets in The Action Network app.
Jordan Montgomery Over 16.5 Pitching Outs (-110)
|Prop||Jordan Montgomery Over 16.5 Pitching Outs (-110)|
|Matchup||Athletics vs. Yankees|
|Time||7:05 p.m. ET|
This isn’t my first time writing about Jordan Montgomery this season, and as long as books keep undervaluing him, it won’t be my last. The Yankees lefty has put together a strong 2022 campaign thus far, with a 2.97 ERA in 78.2 innings across his 14 starts.
He’s eclipsed this line in each of his last six outings (finishing at least six innings in each). His ERA over this stretch is 2.91, and his Hard-Hit Rate is a minuscule 26.3%.
This success can be attributed to the eschewing of his four-seam fastball for his sinker, which has become his primary pitch this season. Not only has the sinker been a more effective pitch, but it’s helped Montgomery maintain the league’s lowest rate of 3.52 pitches per plate appearance among qualified starters.
The A’s have been a mess offensively all season. Against left-handers, their .640 OPS ranks 28th. And versus sinkers, Oakland’s -1.11 wRC per 100 plate appearances is the worst mark in the MLB. In fact, against ground-ball pitchers, Oakland's OPS plummets to .563.
With the Yankees' high-leverage relievers putting in a lot of work over the weekend versus the Astros, Montgomery should have the leash to reach six innings once again tonight.
Pick: Jordan Montgomery Over 16.5 Pitching Outs (-110) | Play to 17.5 Outs
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