PropBetGuy’s Tuesday MLB Player Prop: Giants’ Jakob Junis Should Have a Short Leash Against Diamondbacks (August 16)

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Jakob Junis Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-105)

With injuries derailing most of Anthony DeSclafani’s season, Jakob Junis has been relied on as the Giants' fifth starter. He’s acquitted himself well, with a 3.78 ERA across 14 appearances.

However, in Junis’ 11 starts, he’s stayed under this line seven times, including in each of his last five outings. It’s becoming increasingly apparent that Giants manager Gabe Kapler does not trust Junis and his .963 OPS allowed the third time through the order. In fact, the right-hander has recently been pulled in the fifth inning twice, despite allowing one or fewer runs on less than 75 pitches.

Kapler has not been afraid to go to the bullpen early all season. Giants starters have averaged just a shade over five innings on 83 pitches per start — the 11th- and 10th-lowest team marks, respectively.

Junis’ matchup tonight, the Diamondbacks, have been hitting the ball well of late. Over the last month, Arizona’s OPS of .738 and ISO of .159 rank in the top 12.

They are likely to trot out upwards of seven left-handed hitters tonight, which plays into Junis’ worse split. Opposing lefties are 33-for-118 against Junis this season (.280) with a .781 OPS – these struggles have plagued the pitcher his whole career.

Whether it’s ineffectiveness or Kapler running a tight ship, there are multiple outs to this outs prop (clever, I know). I do not have Junis pitching past the fifth inning tonight.

Pick: Jakob Junis Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-105) | Playable to -130

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