MLB Player Props: Will Dylan Bundy Strike Out Five Angels?
Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Dylan Bundy.
We’ve got 15 games on tap, and today appears to be the day of the underdog, so let’s dive right into the player props that have caught my attention.
MLB Player Props, Saturday, May 11
- Brewers @ Cubs: 2:20 p.m. ET
- Angels @ Orioles: 4:05 p.m. ET
Our FantasyLabs MLB Player Props Tool leverages our projections against odds offered at various sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of 1 to 10. All odds as of 10:50 a.m. ET. View live odds here.
Brewers SP Zach Davies
The Pick: Under 4.5 strikeouts (+100)
Davies would be 3-2 on this prop this season and with the plus-money odds currently being offered, this seems like a good spot to jump on the under. He’s sporting a 1.56 ERA this season, but his 4.83 xFIP suggests he’s been incredibly lucky thus far.
The under is certainly attainable against a Cubs lineup that has a middling 24.3% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers over the past year. Additionally, Davies has a pedestrian 15.9% strikeout rate, 6.7% swinging-strike rate and 5.8 K/9 this season.
The primary concern with the under is the Cubs are implied for just 4.0 runs with the wind blowing in from center field today, so if Davies can pitch past the fifth inning in this matchup, he’s going to make you sweat the under.
We have him projected for 4.5 strikeouts, which seems like a fair line, so I wouldn’t lay any juice on this prop.
Orioles SP Dylan Bundy
The Pick: Under 4.5 strikeouts (+130)
Bundy is actually a solid strikeout pitcher, posting a 9.39 K/9 over the past year, which explains the +130 odds today.
However, the under is incredibly intriguing given the Angels’ projected lineup only has an 18.7% strikeout rate over the past 12 months against righties. Furthermore, the Angels are implied for 5.2 runs, so if Bundy can get lit up early, maybe he doesn’t pitch deep into the game.
Bundy can get knocked around at times, as he carries a 4.59 career xFIP, along with a 5.00 xFIP this year. Given the matchup, I’ll take a gamble on the under against this low-strikeout Angels team.
I wouldn’t bet this worse than +110.