Rangers vs Astros Odds & Prediction: Expert Over/Under Pick (Saturday)

Rangers vs Astros odds for the second game of the Lone Star Series have the Astros as -135 favorites on the moneyline with an over/under of 9. The over/under is key to my Rangers vs Astros prediction on Saturday.

The Astros' makeshift rotation has struggled mightily throughout their disastrous 4-11 start to the season. J.P. France provided another horrid start in Friday's series opener against the Rangers, as he allowed eight earned runs and managed to work through only four innings. Ronel Blanco has been a bright spot though, and he will make his third start of the season on Saturday as Houston tries to snap a four-game losing streak.

Blanco dominated the Rangers on Sunday Night Baseball, allowing only one hit, and he has yet to allow an earned run in 15 innings.

The Rangers will send 32-year-old southpaw Andrew Heaney to the mound. He owns a 7.56 ERA in 8 1/3 innings; he allowed six earned runs last time out versus the Astros.

Find my Rangers vs Astros pick below.

Heaney pitched to an ERA of 4.15 and a 4.55 xERA across 147 and 1/3 innings of work in 2023. The preseason consensus among projection systems was for Heaney to own an ERA near 4.40 in 2024.

Based on his initial two outings, the Rangers would happily take a mid-four ERA. He's pitched to an xFIP of 5.11, and owns a strikeout rate of 23.1%. Heaney's Stuff+ has taken a notable step backwards so far this season compared to last. He owns a Stuff+ of 90 in 2024 compared to 102 last season.

The Rangers offense has followed up its tremendous World Series run with an excellent start to the campaign. They own a third best wRC+ of 120, which has been driven by strong plate discipline as evidenced by a fourth best BB/K of 0.59.

Evan Carter's process at the plate has been excellent, and suddenly the 21-year-old phenom has broken out with 10 hits in his last 27 at-bats.

Nathaniel Lowe started a rehab assignment Friday, and is expected to return to the lineup in the coming week.

Ronel Blanco's start to the season has been downright incredible. The 30-year-old opened up the campaign with a no-hitter versus Toronto, and followed it up by allowing just one-hit versus Texas last time out.

As for any pitcher that allows one hit over 15 innings, there has obviously some luck involved in Blanco's early success. Now the task will be to prove those outings were no fluke.

Blanco has struck out only 6.6 batters per nine in 2024, and owns a xFIP of 4.58. His Stuff+ of 99 and Location+ of 99 are also not overly impressive.

None of that data should take anything away from Blanco's incredible start to the season, which has been a lovable story. He pitched to a 4.50 ERA in 2023 though, and the early case does suggest this level of dominance continuing is unlikely.

Blanco did receive a generous strike zone Sunday versus the Rangers, which was a factor in shutting down such a disciplined lineup.

The Astros have been the fourth most potent offense in the league with a 119 wRC+ so far. They rank first in xBA at .272, and have struck out less than any team aside from the Diamondbacks at just 17.1%.

Houston has hit to a wRC+ of 119 versus left-handed pitching in 2024, and ranked third best with a wRC+ of 122 versus lefties in 2023.

We saw another shootout between these two rivals in the series opener, and a similar contest Saturday seems probable.

Blanco has been amazing so far this year, but this sets up as a good time to sell high. His stuff doesn't rate overly well, and it's logical to think the Rangers intelligent lineup should figure out some ways to get to him after just seeing him Sunday. We constantly see starters come out of the blue with strong 2-3 game runs, and at this point Blanco does not look likely to pitch at this level for long.

If Blanco doesn't pitch very deep into the game who knows what we will get out of Houston's bullpen, which has been worked heavily and put up bad results so far.

The Astros lineup still looks downright scary too, even if that fact is being hidden by their awful record to some extent. They pace the league in many notable underlying batting categories, and that's no surprise given the way they projected to hit entering the year. They know Heaney well, and at this point there isn't much Heaney can do to fool the Astros, who have hit him well historically.

At hitter friendly Globe Life Park, a juiced total of nine still looks too low. Anything better than -140 is worthy of a play on the over at nine or better.

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