MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions for Rangers vs. White Sox: Can Chicago’s Offense Solve Martín Pérez?

Rangers vs. White Sox Odds

The Chicago White Sox put up four earned runs on Tyler Anderson in three innings of work on Thursday afternoon. To that point, Anderson had not given up a run since May 17.

Simply put, the White Sox hit lefties, and that trend has spilled over from 2021 to 2022, even with their offensive struggles.

On Saturday afternoon, they will face Martín Pérez (another southpaw) and the Texas Rangers. Lucas Giolito will start for the White Sox. Giolito allowed two earned on six innings of work his last time out, but he has not looked as sharp as of late.

Should we back the White Sox against another lefty, or is there value on the Rangers as underdogs against Giolito? Let's dig in.

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Surprising Pérez Could Get Hit Around

Pérez has unexpectedly helped the Rangers this season. He owns a 1.56 ERA and 2.57 xERA, so even if he has been a bit lucky, he has still been great. He's about average in terms of allowing hard contact with an average exit velocity against of 88.6 mph.

So far in June against southpaws — albeit with a small sample size — Jake Burger and José Abreu hold .700+ xwOBA marks. Their average exit velocity in that time has been over 95 mph apiece. Reese McGuire, Danny Mendick, A.J. Pollock and Andrew Vaughn are also over the .340 xwOBA. mark.

This does not even include Adam Engel, Yoán Moncada or Yasmani Grandal, who have not looked like themselves so far this season but have historically performed well against lefties.

The White Sox should be able to push runs across the plate, regardless of how well Pérez has done this season. The Sox showed they could turn the tides for Anderson, so they can do the same against Pérez.

The Rangers has some strong bullpen arms with a 3.77 xFIP. They do have four other lefties in the ‘pen, however: Brock Burke, Kolby Allard, John King and Matt Moore. The White Sox should take full advantage of these arms and stack on runs late in the game, too. Their 141 wRC+ off of southpaws in the last month will come to the forefront against Rangers pitching.

Rangers Likely To Have Trouble Hitting Giolito

The Rangers have a 102 wRC+ off of righties in the last month, but they only have a team OBP of .295 in that time. Giolito’s peripherals have not been totally encouraging, but his whiff rate is still in the 93rd percentile.

His strikeout rate is over 30%, as well, and Texas ranks in the top ten in strikeout percentage against righties.

The Rangers have four regulars over the .340 xwOBA mark off of right-handed changeups this season. Changeups and sliders are Giolito’s out-pitches. He will utilize them on two strike counts and to get out of jams.

When adding in a slider, only three hitters on the Rangers have done well. Either way, the bottom of the Texas order will struggle mightily with Giolito’s off-speed arsenal.

The White Sox have had their woes in relief, but expecting this team to be winning when the pitching duties turn over from Giolito to the bullpen should provide solace for Chicago-backers. Kendall Graveman, Kyle Crick, Aaron Bummer and Liam Hendriks have all been solid in the last month, so the Rangers should be held in check after Giolito leaves the game.

Rangers-White Sox Pick

Expect Giolito to look how he has the last few season, as long as he throws strikes. His changeup and slider will give the Rangers some problems, and then he will turn it over to a lockdown bullpen.

Take the Sox on the moneyline at -145. Play to -170. If this is too much juice, look for anything up to 5 (-110) on the team total.

Pick: Chicago White Sox -145 | play to -170 or Chicago TT o5 to (-110)

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