Reds vs Orioles Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Picks for Monday, June 26
Justin Edmonds/Getty Images. Pictured: Cincinnati Reds pitcher Brandon Williamson
- The Orioles open a three-game stand with the Reds in Baltimore on Monday night.
- Elly De La Cruz and Joey Votto have the Reds atop the NL Central, but they're underdogs tonight on the road.
- Below, Tony Sartori explains why he's focused on the prop market and fading a starting pitcher with the Reds vs Orioles tonight.
Reds vs. Orioles Odds
Cincinnati has become the "apple of the eye" of the baseball world this past month, riding a monstrous win streak amidst the call-up of top prospect Elly De La Cruz and the return of Joey Votto.
Will the Reds continue their winning ways, or can Baltimore defend its home diamond?
Here's a look at the odds, as well as my Reds vs. Orioles betting pick and prediction.
Left-hander Brandon Williamson is slated to take the mound for the Cincinnati Reds in this matchup and should be a great candidate to fade. Through seven starts this season, Williamson possesses a 5.40 ERA and 1.39 WHIP.
His underlying metrics suggest that positive regression is unlikely, as he ranks in the eighth percentile or lower in HardHit%, xERA/xwOBA, xBA, xSLG and Barrel%. Specifically, we are going to fade Williamson in the strikeout department.
Entering Monday, he ranks in the 40th percentile or lower in K%, Whiff% and Chase Rate. Possessing a five-pitch arsenal, the left-hander primarily relies on his four-seam and cutter, two pitches that have gotten shelled all year.
Williamson has recorded three or fewer strikeouts in four of his past six starts. This trend is likely to continue on Monday against the Baltimore Orioles.
It has been a terrific season thus far for the Orioles, who currently sit in second place in the AL East with a 47-29 record.
The main reason for this success has been their tremendous lineup, which ranks in the top half of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, SLG, OPS and home runs.
On top of that, this roster does a good job at avoiding the strikeout. When facing left-handed pitching this year, Baltimore ranks 11th in K%.
Looking at Monday's projected starting lineup, four of the nine hitters possess a K% south of 23% this season.
Reds vs. Orioles Betting Pick
This avoidance of the strikeout is likely to continue against Williamson. While nobody on this current Orioles lineup has faced the rookie hurler out of TCU, he has not shown anything this season to make me concerned.
Williamson's surface-level stats are poor, his underlying metrics are even worse, and now he goes against a very strong Baltimore lineup.
Usually on a short leash due to poor outings, Williamson has pitched six or more innings just once in his career thus far.
He recorded more than three strikeouts in that outing, something he has only done twice over his past six starts.