MLB Odds & Picks for Rockies vs. Marlins: Should Miami Be Larger Favorite?

MLB Odds & Picks for Rockies vs. Marlins: Should Miami Be Larger Favorite? article feature image

Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images. Pictured: Daniel Castano (Marlins)

  • The Rockies travel to Miami to open a three-game set vs. the Marlins.
  • Colorado is sending Ryan Feltner to the hill while Miami has Daniel Castano ready to go.
  • D.J. James breaks down the matchup and explains why the Marlins should be larger favorites in this one.

Rockies vs. Marlins Odds

Rockies Odds+100
Marlins Odds-130
Over/Under7.5 (-105/-115)
Time6:40 p.m. ET
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Two relatively raw arms go head-to-head in the Miami on Tuesday, as the Marlins face off against the Rockies.

After transitioning into a starting role and throwing 6 2/3 innings of shutout ball while facing the Phillies in his last outing, Daniel Castano will take the bump for the Marlins.

Ryan Feltner has seen a similar pathway to the Rockies' rotation, throwing six innings of one-run ball against the Padres in his last start.

The difference here is not as much Castano against Feltner, although Castano does look like the sharper arm. Instead, it's the discrepancy between the offensive performances against these types of pitchers.

Miami has crushed right-handed pitching in the month of June, with a team 112 wRC+. The Rockies have been below average, with a 97 wRC+ off of southpaws.

This means Castano should have a more favorable matchup.

The difference between the bullpens is negligible, but Marlins moneyline has good value.

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How Does Rockies' Feltner Match Up With Marlins?

Feltner has been unlucky in the early going of 2022 — he has a 4.85 ERA against a 3.68 xERA.

He also struggles with Hard Hit Percentage, as he ranks in the 13th percentile at 45.1%. The Marlins do not collectively rank well via Hard Hit Percentage, but that stat jumps off the page.

Jesús Sánchez, Jesús Aguilar, Joey Wendle and Brian Anderson are on the injured list, so this will help Feltner. However, there are seven other Miami hitters over a .335 xwOBA off of right-handers this month. This accounts for nearly the entire lineup, which should present early issues for Feltner.

Now, even if the bullpen differences between these two teams is negligible, an issue may come to the forefront for Colorado if Feltner cannot go deep into this game. Given the strength of the Miami order off of righties lately, it does not look like he will.

Tyler Kinley and Ty Blach are out for Colorado in the ‘pen, so the Rockies are pitching shorthanded. Chad Smith is also in the minors. They have other consistent arms, but they do have the propensity to give up runs.

Of the remaining relievers, Colorado has only three active arms with a sub-4.00 xFIP, so the Marlins could provide themselves some insurance late in the game.

Can Marlins' Castano Limit Rockies?

Castano has been a little lucky. He has a 0.00 ERA against a 3.97 xERA. He has only walked 4.5% of hitters, so this is encouraging for Miami heading into this game.

He also only has an Average Exit Velocity of 84.4 mph off the bat. This is exceptional and will provide him a leg up on the competition.

Even if the Rockies have struggled a little against lefties this month, they have a strong top-half of the order. Alan Trejo (minors) and Kris Bryant (IL) are sidelined, but they also have seven bats with a .335+ xwOBA.

That said, Castano should be able to mow down the bottom of the order. Since he does not allow hard contact, the edge goes to him over Feltner.

Cole Sulser is injured, but the rest of the Miami bullpen should be good to go. The Marlins have far more arms under the 4.00 xFIP mark, so this gives them a little more depth than Colorado. If Castano can go five innings, he wins the duel with Feltner.

Rockies-Marlins Pick

Even if the Rockies have some strong top-of-the-order bats to hit lefties, Castano’s ability to limit hard contact should allow him to pitch well into this game.

Feltner, on the other hand, ranks poorly in Hard Hit Percentage, so the Miami hitters should exploit this.

Take the Marlins from -120 to -140. They should be much larger favorites.

Pick: Miami Marlins -120 | Play to -140

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