The Chicago Cubs host the San Diego Padres on October 1, 2025. First pitch from Wrigley Field is scheduled for 3:08 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on ABC.
Find my MLB betting preview and Padres vs Cubs prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Padres vs Cubs Prediction
- Padres vs Cubs picks: Under 6.5 (+100 | Play to -105)
My Padres vs Cubs best bet is Under 6.5. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Padres vs Cubs Odds
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -225 | 6.5 -115o / -105u | -105 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +190 | 6.5 -115o / -105u | -115 |
Padres vs Cubs Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Dylan Cease (SDP) | Stat | LHP Shota Imanaga (CHC) |
|---|---|---|
| 8-12 | W-L | 9-8 |
| 3.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.9 |
| 4.55 / 3.47 | ERA /xERA | 3.73 / 4.21 |
| 3.56 / 3.56 | FIP / xFIP | 4.86 / 4.51 |
| 1.33 | WHIP | 0.99 |
| 19.9% | K-BB% | 16% |
| 37.3% | GB% | 30% |
| 108 | Stuff+ | 94 |
| 100 | Location+ | 108 |
Tony Sartori’s Padres vs Cubs Preview
San Diego Padres Betting Preview
Dylan Cease ended the regular season in tremendous form, allowing two or fewer runs in four of his final five starts. He posted a 2-1 record with a 3.12 ERA over that stretch.
His underlying metrics suggest more of the same could be expected this postseason. In 2025, Cease boasted a 3.47 expected ERA (xERA) and a .222 expected batting average (xBA).
The right-hander also ranked in the 60th percentile in average exit velocity, 89th percentile in strikeout rate and 72nd percentile in hard-hit rate. That success is likely to continue against Chicago.
Over his past six meetings with the Cubs, Cease is 4-0 with a 1.47 ERA and 0.95 WHIP.
Following Cease is one of the best bullpens in baseball. In 2025, San Diego’s relief corps finished first in ERA, fielding independent pitching (FIP) and wins above replacement (WAR).
Chicago Cubs Betting Preview
That said, the Cubs’ bullpen can hold its own. This season, it ranked in the top half of the league in ERA, xERA and expected FIP (xFIP).
One of those relievers is right-hander Andrew Kittredge, who will open the game for Chicago. One of the most underrated relievers in baseball, Kittredge ranks in the 84th percentile or higher in xERA, xBA, strikeout rate and walk rate.
He should have no issue setting the stage for Shota Imanaga, who will fill the bulk-innings role. Through 25 starts, Imanaga is 9-8 with a 3.73 ERA and 0.99 WHIP.
Like Cease, Imanaga has excelled against his current opponent. Through three career starts against the Padres, he owns a 1-0 record with a 1.40 ERA and 0.98 WHIP.
Padres vs Cubs Prediction, Betting Analysis
San Diego generated only one run in Game 1, and another quiet performance is likely. The Padres finished the regular season in the bottom half of the league in slugging percentage (SLG), OPS and home runs.
While the Cubs boast a much stronger lineup, they have struggled against Cease. Through 108 combined plate appearances against him, this current Chicago roster owns a mere .194 batting average, .327 slugging percentage and .261 weighted on-base average (wOBA).
Pick: Under 6.5 (+100 | Play to -105)
Moneyline
I lean toward Chicago, but I don't want to fade Cease.
Run Line (Spread)
I also like Chicago to cover, but I'm staying away for the same reason listed above.
Over/Under
As mentioned, I'm betting Under 6.5.
