The New York Mets host the San Diego Padres on September 16, 2025. First pitch from Citi Field is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on TBS.
Find my MLB betting preview and Padres vs Mets prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Padres vs Mets Prediction
- Padres vs Mets picks: Padres Moneyline (-106 | Play to -115)
My Padres vs Mets best bet is Padres moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Padres vs Mets Odds
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +145 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | -110 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | -110 |
Padres vs Mets Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Michael King (SDP) | Stat | RHP Clay Holmes (NYM) |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | W-L | 11-8 |
| 1.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.9 |
| 2.87 / 3.61 | ERA /xERA | 3.75 / 4.45 |
| 3.72 / 3.95 | FIP / xFIP | 4.05 / 4.24 |
| 1.07 | WHIP | 1.35 |
| 18.4% | K-BB% | 9.2% |
| 38.6% | GB% | 55.2% |
| 100 | Stuff+ | 104 |
| 103 | Location+ | 100 |
Tony Sartori’s Padres vs Mets Preview
San Diego Padres Betting Preview: King Set for Strong Performance
Michael King has battled injuries this season, but he has been excellent when healthy. Through 12 starts, the right-hander is 4-2 with a 2.87 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are equally impressive. King ranks in the 60th percentile or higher in expected ERA (xERA), expected batting average (xBA), average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.
This success is likely to continue against New York, a team King has dominated. Over the past five meetings, the right-hander boasts a 1.35 ERA and 0.90 WHIP.
Following King is the best bullpen in baseball. This season, San Diego’s relief corps ranks first in ERA, xERA, FIP and WAR.
New York Mets Betting Preview: Mets' Outclassed in this Matchup
On the other hand, the Mets’ bullpen ranks 17th, 17th, seventh and seventh in those four respective categories. Not only do the Padres possess the relief pitching advantage, but they also boast the starting pitching edge.
Clay Holmes takes the mound for New York, and he ranks in the bottom third of the league in xERA, xBA, walk rate and hard-hit rate. Holmes also trails King in both ERA and WHIP.
The right-hander also faced San Diego earlier this season. In that outing, Holmes surrendered four runs on eight hits in fewer than four innings of work.
The Padres beat the Mets 5-0 in that contest, and a similar outcome could be in store Tuesday.
Padres vs Mets Prediction, Betting Analysis
Through 50 combined plate appearances against Holmes, this current San Diego roster boasts a .349 batting average, .512 slugging percentage and .414 weighted on-base average (wOBA).
Meanwhile, this current New York roster has a .213 batting average, .404 slugging percentage and .309 wOBA through 53 combined plate appearances against King.
The only reason the price is so low on the Padres is that the Mets are far stronger at home than San Diego is on the road. That said, those trends do not offset the aforementioned variables.
Pick: Padres Moneyline (-106 | Play to -115)
Moneyline
As mentioned, I'm betting the Padres moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
I also like the Padres to cover, but I find more value in just taking the outright moneyline price.
Over/Under
I lean toward the under, but don't trust Holmes.
Padres vs Mets Betting Trends
