The San Francisco Giants host the San Diego Padres on May 6, 2026. First pitch from Oracle Park is scheduled for 3:45 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on NBCS-BA.
The Padres are favored by -112 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Giants are -104 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Padres vs Giants prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Padres vs Giants Prediction
- Padres vs Giants Pick: Giants ML (-110 or Better)
My Padres vs Giants best bet is on San Francisco to win. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Padres vs Giants Odds
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | -112 |
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -182 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | -104 |
- Padres vs Giants moneyline: Padres -112, Giants -104
- Padres vs Giants over/under: 8.5 (-110 / -110)
- Padres vs Giants spread: Padres -1.5 (+150), Giants +1.5 (-182)
Padres vs Giants Probable Pitchers
| Matt Waldron (RHP, SDP) | Stat | Adrian Houser (SFG, RHP) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | W-L | 0-3 |
| -0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.2 |
| 9.88 / 4.61 | ERA / xERA | 7.12 / 5.96 |
| 6.36 / 5.80 | FIP / xFIP | 5.75 / 4.68 |
| 4.3% | K-BB% | 4.2% |
| 46.2% | GB% | 49.1% |
| .373 | BABIP | .327 |
| 93 | Stuff+ | 92 |
| 106 | Location+ | 112 |
Padres vs Giants MLB Betting Preview
These two starting pitchers are essentially the same guy.
Both Adrian Houser and Matt Waldron have been super unlucky to start the season, but are likely still slightly below-average MLB starting pitchers with sub-5% K-BB rates and sub-100 Stuff+ metrics. If you boil it down to botERA, Houser is better by 0.05 runs (3.75 to 3.80).
Surprisingly, I power rate these bullpens fairly closely. I'm a fan of Ryan Walker, Keaton Winn, and Caleb Killian in the back of San Francisco's pen. The only reason I rate San Diego's bullpen higher is Mason Miller's incomprehensible dominance.
I project San Diego's offense as slightly better, which is surprising given how gross the Giants have looked at the plate. But the Friars haven't exactly been mashing the ball (99 wRC+ against RHPs), and I wonder if the Giants are due for some positive regression eventually. Plus, the change from Patrick Bailey (20 wRC+ so far) to Jesus Rodriguez at catcher might help the offense, even if it hurts the defense.
Padres vs Giants Pick, Betting Analysis
Ultimately, I don't project a huge difference between these two teams.
But with Oracle Park's home-field advantage baked in, I make the Giants around -125 ML favorites in this game.
Given they're still being priced at Under -110, I'll take a shot with San Francisco in the bay.
Pick: Giants ML (-110 or Better)
