The Atlanta Braves host the San Francisco Giants on June 18, 2026. First pitch from Truist Park is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on NBCS-BA.
The Braves are favored by -142 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Giants are +120 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Giants vs Braves prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Giants vs Braves Prediction
- Giants vs Braves Picks: LEAN: Giants ML | Giants F5 ML
My Giants vs Braves leans are with San Francisco win after five innings and win outright. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Giants vs Braves Odds
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -184 | 8 -115o / -105u | +120 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +155 | 8 -115o / -105u | -142 |
- Giants vs Braves moneyline: Giants +120 Braves -142
- Giants vs Braves over/under: 8 (-115o / -105u)
- Giants vs Braves spread: Braves -1.5 (+155), Giants +1.5 (-184)
Giants vs Braves Probable Pitchers
| RHP Landen Roupp (SFG) | Stat | LHP Martin Perez (ATL) |
|---|---|---|
| 5-7 | W-L | 5-3 |
| 1.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.8 |
| 4.24/3.37 | ERA / xERA | 2.90/4.03 |
| 2.96/3.44 | FIP / xFIP | 3.82/3.91 |
| 16.0% | K-BB% | 12.2% |
| 49.2% | GB% | 46.7% |
| .311 | BABIP | .230 |
| 99 | Stuff+ | 88 |
| 108 | Location+ | 102 |
Giants vs Braves MLB Betting Preview, Picks
This one is more of a lean with current market prices for both the full game and F5 right on the edge of playability.
Martin Perez has a 2.90 ERA that’s more than a run better than Landen Roupp’s 4.24, but I still have Roupp the better pitcher by half a run, and I will explain why.
Roupp doesn’t have a single estimator reaching four. In fact, only his Bot ERA (3.87) and SIERA (3.77) exceed 3.5, and the former is challenged by a 107 Pitching+.
He has allowed 27 runs (25 earned) over his last 39 innings, but has also allowed two earned runs or less in half of those eight starts, while in the worst one of them, an eight-run outing in Milwaukee with more walks than strikeouts, it was revealed to be an outing where his back locked up.
Not counting that start, Roupp has an 18.3% K-BB with only 28 hard-hit batted balls in the other seven combined.
That’s right, he’s averaging an absurd four hard-hit batted balls in the other seven starts, and even despite the 10 hard-hit batted balls in Milwaukee (71.4%), he has a 29.9% HardHit rate on the season.
Meanwhile, Perez has managed contact quite well too (7% Barrels/BBE, 38 HardHit%) with a 12.6% K-BB that’s a bit worse than league average, but he doesn’t have a single non-FIP estimator within a run of his ERA, including the worst pitch modeling on the board (5.10 Bot ERA, 93 Pitching+).
His .230 BABIP is more than 70 points below his career average, and his 80.2% strand rate is almost nine points above his career rate.
Then we have the Atlanta offense with a 108 wRC+ against RHP, which is eight points higher than San Francisco’s 100 against LHP.
However, this Giants’ offense is suddenly red hot. They’ve admittedly played almost every road series in the highest run environments in the league over the last month, but wRC+ tries to strip away those park effects, and it works to some extent.
Rotowire’s projected Giants’ lineup has a 153 wRC+ over the last 30 days and 113 against LHP since last season, compared to the Braves’ 109 and 106.
I’m not saying the Giants are now better than the Braves, but even with Drake Baldwin back, Ronald Acuna Jr. is still missing, while Bryce Eldridge (216 wRC+ L30 days) is tearing the cover off the ball and has a 186 wRC+ against LHP so far.
The Braves are at home and project a small base-running edge (4 BRR), along with larger defensive (15 FRV) and bullpen edges. The Atlanta bullpen has beaten the San Francisco one by more than a run and a quarter over the last 30 days (FIP, xFIP, SIERA average), while there’s a 28-team and 1.37 wFIP gap between the two via BARTOLO.
Still, with the pitchers and offenses perhaps misvalued, I find the current F5 (+102) and full-game (+120) San Francisco prices just shy of being actionable. A number of factors could nudge that past the threshold, or beyond it, once lineups come out on Thursday.
Picks: LEAN: Giants ML | Giants F5 ML
