Saturday MLB Props, PrizePicks Plays: 5 Picks, Including Manny Machado (August 6)
Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images. Pictured: Manny Machado
Saturday's MLB slate features 17 games, which means there are plenty of player props to take advantage of across the board.
Player props have become among the most popular bets in the industry, but while the amount of states with legalized gambling is growing, some may feel left out.
With PrizePicks, you get the opportunity to essentially parlay game prop over/unders with cash payouts depending on how many you get correct on that day’s slate.
Therefore, let’s take a look at some of the options in Tuesday’s MLB games and see where we can find some value to turn a profit.
A quick refresher if you aren’t familiar with PrizePicks: you can combine up to five different O/U player props to payout up to 10x your wager.
You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play gives you lesser odds, but you can win money even if you don’t nail every pick. Meanwhile, a Power Play is similar to a parlay — it’s all or nothing.
Here’s how I would approach today’s MLB slate.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
MLB PrizePicks Plays for Saturday, August 6
Mike Clevinger Over 5 Strikeouts
Right-hander Mike Clevinger is slated to take the mound for San Diego, and I believe his strikeout prop is set too low due to the fact that he is facing the Dodgers.
Clevinger has reached at least five strikeouts in five of his last six starts (83%), and will have a good shot at doing so once again in this contest. His metrics back up his strong surface-level numbers this season, boasting a .293 xwOBA, .240 xBA, .363 xSLG and 23.8 K%.
While the Dodgers certainly have a powerful lineup, they also have a couple of guys who strike out frequently. Including newcomer Joey Gallo, this lineup possesses three other guys with strikeout percentages north of 25%: Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy, and Chris Taylor.
Manny Machado Over 1.5 Total Bases
We are also backing a few Padres hitters in this game, starting with Manny Machado. Machado has been seeing the ball well recently, going over this number in seven of his last 13 games (54%).
This trend could continue against left-hander Andrew Heaney. Through 12 career plate appearances against Heaney, Machado boasts a .361 xBA, 1.083 xSLG, and .559 xwOBA.
Most of Machado's power comes against left-handers as he possesses a .535 SLG and .901 OPS when facing them this season, and I would not be shocked at all if he records yet another homer against Heaney.
Trent Grisham Over 0.5 Total Bases
The other Padres hitter we are backing in this game is Trent Grisham. While Grisham's season-long numbers are poor, just one base hit should not be too much to ask for.
Recording at least one hit in nine of his last 12 games (75%), Grisham should be able to keep it going against Heaney. When facing left-handed pitchers this season, Grisham's numbers jump by about five percent.
Christian Walker Hitter Fantasy Score Over 7.5
Through 16 starts this season, Senzatela is 3-6 with a 4.87 ERA and 1.71 WHIP. His metrics are even worse as he possesses a .360 xwOBA, .315 xBA, and .466 xSLG.
The first hitter we are backing is Christian Walker, a guy who has excelled against Senzatela. Through 22 career plate appearances against the Rockies' right-hander, Walker boasts a .500 BA, .955 SLG, and .602 wOBA.
Ketel Marte Hitter Fantasy Score Over 7.5
The other Diamondbacks hitter we are backing in this game is Ketel Marte. Through 26 career plate appearances against Senzatela, Marte boasts a .400 BA, .520 SLG, and .403 wOBA.
Behind Walker, Marte has been Arizona's second-best hitter this season. His metrics back this up as he possesses a .324 xwOBA, .253 xBA, and .387 xSLG.
I expect this duo to tee off against Senzatela once again.