The Minnesota Twins host the Seattle Mariners on Tuesday, April 28. First pitch from Target Field is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on MNNT and MLB.TV.
The Mariners are favored by -126 on the moneyline and by -1.5 (+142) on the run line. The Twins are +108 on the moneyline and +1.5 (-172) on the run line. The over/under comes in at 7.5 total runs.
Find my MLB picks and Mariners vs Twins prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Mariners vs Twins Prediction
- Mariners vs Twins Pick: Under 7.5
My Mariners vs Twins best bet is both teams to go under the total. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mariners vs Twins Odds
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +142 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | -126 |
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -172 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | +108 |
- Mariners vs Twins Moneyline: Mariners -126, Twins +108
- Mariners vs Twins Over/Under: 7.5 (-105o / -115u)
- Mariners vs Twins Run Line: Mariners -1.5 (+142), Twins +1.5 (-172)
Mariners vs Twins MLB Betting Preview
Editor’s Note: This article was transcribed from the latest episode of the Payoff Pitch Podcast.
While Logan Gilbert is certainly a higher-quality pitcher than the struggling Luis Castillo, I still have some concerns about him right now.
He’s not getting whiffs in two-strike counts like he used to. He’s utilizing his slider and just not finding it. His strikeout rate is down about 8% this year, and at this point in the season, that looks sustainable.
I think we’re seeing a slightly reduced version of Gilbert.
His underlying metrics have slipped, and his K-BB% looks closer to about 20% than the 30% we saw a couple of years ago when he looked like a potential Cy Young candidate. It could be injury-related or he could be pitching through something, but I've downgraded him either way. He would’ve been my SP3 last year; I have him at SP24 now.
Twins starter Joe Ryan sits in that same neighborhood as Gilbert in terms of expected metrics — a high-end No. 2 or low-end No. 1 starting pitcher.
I’ve got both Ryan and Gilbert around a 20% K-BB%, with ERA indicators in the low-to-mid 3s. These are still two solid starters, but Gilbert looks like he’s regressing a bit.
Where this under comes into frame a bit more is the game environment. The wind is blowing out at Target Field, but it’ll be in the 50s at first pitch.
More importantly, Doug Eddings is behind the plate. Using my umpire model (I build these from umpire scorecards and call-favor tendencies), Eddings projects as the most pitcher-friendly umpire reputationally — and probably in practice, too.
I peg Eddings as worth about a 4% reduction to my projected total for the game.
Mariners vs Twins Pick, Betting Analysis
Putting it together, I’m projecting the total around 6.4. The market sits at 7.5, and I’m taking the under down to 7 at -115.
Aside from Anthony Banda for the Twins, I expect the key arms and both bullpens to be available and effective enough to keep this game low-scoring.
I'll take the under in this cold-weather matchup.
Pick: Under 7.5 (Play to 7 at -115)
