The Chicago White Sox host the St. Louis Cardinals on on June 17, 2025. First pitch from Rate Field is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on CHSN.
Find my MLB betting preview and Cardinals vs White Sox prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Cardinals vs White Sox Prediction
- Cardinals vs White Sox pick: Under 4.5 F5 Innings
My Cardinals vs White Sox best bet is under the total for the first five innings. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Cardinals vs White Sox Odds
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +115 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | -150 |
| White Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -140 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | +125 |
Cardinals vs White Sox Projected Starting Pitchers
| Matthew Liberatore (STL) | Stat | Shane Smith (CHW) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-6 | W-L | 3-3 |
| 1.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.4 |
| 4.17 / 3.64 | ERA /xERA | 2.37 / 3.72 |
| 3.15 / 3.59 | FIP / xFIP | 3.45 / 4.08 |
| 1.19 | WHIP | 1.17 |
| 16.7 | K-BB% | 12.9 |
| 41 | GB% | 43.3 |
| 98 | Stuff+ | 97 |
| 103 | Location+ | 100 |
Cardinals vs White Sox Prediction, Betting Analysis
Shane Smith has been one of my favorite pitchers to target this season. The Rule 5 pick has allowed three earned runs or less in all 13 of his starts. Smith's 2.37 ERA won't last, but it could bump up a run and still be a respectable mark.
He draws an excellent matchup against a struggling Cardinals offense on Tuesday. The Cardinals are 28th in OPS and wOBA and 27th in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 30 days.
Meanwhile, Matthew Liberatore's breakout season has come to a crashing halt over his last three starts. He's been hammered for 16 earned runs over his past 14 innings pitched. Nothing obvious seems to be wrong, so it's likely a stretch of unfortunate luck.
Liberatore has allowed some loud contact over this stretch — including four home runs — but he still has a 4.47 SIERA over the three starts. That's not great, but it's a far cry from his actual ERA during that span.
This is a decent spot for Liberatore to bounce back, as the White Sox are 20th in wOBA and wRC+ against left-handed pitching this season. They have the second-lowest hard-contact rate in the league.
Liberatore's ERA estimators are still in the mid-3.00s, so I expect him to get back on track.
Pick: Under 4.5 F5 Innings
Moneyline
I don't have a play on the moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
I don't have a play on the run line.
Over/Under
I'm not targeting the regular total, but I'm taking under 4.5 first five innings.
