The Los Angeles Dodgers host the St. Louis Cardinals on August 4, 2025. First pitch from Dodger Stadium is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on FDSMW.
The Dodgers will return home to host the Cardinals after completing a nine-game road trip Sunday with a 3-0 win over the Tampa Bay Rays. Los Angeles is a heavy betting favorite as Tyler Glasnow (3.38 ERA, 40 IP) will face off against Sonny Gray (4.38 ERA, 121 1/3 IP).
Find my MLB betting preview and Cardinals vs Dodgers prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Cardinals vs Dodgers Prediction
- Cardinals vs Dodgers pick: Dodgers -0.5 F5 Innings -130 (DraftKings, Play to -140)
My Cardinals vs Dodgers best bet is Dodgers -0.5 F5 innings. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Cardinals vs Dodgers Odds
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -132 | 8 -108o / -112u | +153 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +108 | 8 -108o / -112u | -188 |
Cardinals vs Dodgers Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Sonny Gray (STL) | Stat | RHP Tyler Glasnow (LAD) |
|---|---|---|
| 10-5 | W-L | 1-1 |
| 2.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.4 |
| 4.38/3.95 | ERA /xERA | 3.38/3.84 |
| 3.09/2.95 | FIP / xFIP | 4.58/3.65 |
| 1.22 | WHIP | 1.15 |
| 22.5% | K-BB% | 17.0% |
| 40.7% | GB% | 43.6% |
| 96 | Stuff+ | 99 |
| 103 | Location+ | 92 |
Nick Martin’s Cardinals vs Dodgers Preview
St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview: Rotation Reason Behind Struggles
The Cardinals have struggled to a record of 7-13 in their last 20 matchups, which has put their hopes of earning a playoff berth on life support. Per FanGraphs, they enter this series with just a 4.1% chance of making the postseason.
The main reason for their disappointing 56-57 record is due to the results from their starting rotation. They've pitched to an ERA of 4.60 and rank 26th in adjusted ERA.
Gray's 4.38 ERA across 121 1/3 innings of work certainly hasn't been the biggest issue, but it's still a letdown relative to his preseason expectations.
Gray does appear to have run with some bad luck this season, as he holds an xERA of 3.95 and an xFIP of 2.95. He's stranded base runners at the second-lowest rate of his 12-year MLB career and has allowed a slugging percentage of .480 with runners on base.
Though his underlying results have still remained solid, Gray has struggled mightily when it counts recently, as in six starts during July, he pitched to an ERA of 7.81. He struck out 10.41 batters per nine in those outings but allowed a batting average of .347 and an xBA of .301.
In his last six starts, Gray held a Stuff+ rating of 96 and a Pitching+ rating of 103, which are down compared to last season when he had a Stuff+ of 97 and a Pitching+ of 107.
Gray has struggled to find success when pitching on the road this season, as he holds an ERA of 5.84 across 44 2/3 innings of work while allowing a slug rate of .460.
As a team, the Cardinals have also been far less effective when playing on the road, as they hold a record of 24-33 this season. They have a 13th-ranked wRC+ of 112 at home this season, but they rank 23rd with a wRC+ of 92 on the road.
St. Louis' offense has struggled recently, which isn't surprising given the team's record over the last month of play. It ranks 23rd in wRC+ over the last month, as well as 25th in hard-hit rate and 15th in BB/K ratio.
Nolan Arenado will remain sidelined for this matchup with a shoulder injury suffered last Wednesday, while Brendan Donovan's status is unclear after missing Sunday's matchup due to a family emergency.
Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview: Glasnow Back in Form
Glasnow will be making his fifth start since returning from a shoulder injury suffered on April 27. Though his inability to stay healthy continues to be a significant issue, Glasnow has been highly effective when healthy over the last three seasons, pitching to an ERA of 3.52 in 294 innings of work.
He's been in strong form since returning from injury on July 9, pitching to an ERA of 2.45 across 22 innings of work. He's struck out 29.5% of batters in that span and allowed a batting average of .167. He also holds a Stuff+ rating of 101 and a Pitching+ rating of 103 in those outings.
The Dodgers' offense has been struggling recently, as it's hit to a wRC+ of 89 and struck out at the highest rate in the MLB. Mookie Betts has been highly ineffective, slugging just .358, and may simply be past his prime.
Still, the Dodgers' wRC+ of 115 dating back to the start of last season still suggests the lineup should start to trend upwards in the near future, even if Betts continues to struggle.
Max Muncy's absence from the lineup has certainly been one reason for the team's lethargic stretch of offensive play. Still, Muncy could be ready to return to the lineup for tonight's matchup and would likely overtake Alex Freeland at third base.
Los Angeles holds a wRC+ of 123 at home this season, which is the best mark in the MLB by a fairly wide margin.
Cardinals vs Dodgers Prediction, Betting Analysis
The dog days of the regular season could've added a level of complacency into the defending World Series champions' game, but with the San Diego Padres sitting just three games back in the division, the Dodgers should be motivated to elevate their level of play as they open up this homestand after a lengthy road trip.
While Gray does appear to be due for better results moving forward, Glasnow has been tremendous since returning from the IL and is still likely to be the more effective starter the rest of the way.
Both sides have posted poor offensive results recently, but it's obvious to say that the Dodgers' high-powered lineup is likely to start offering better results soon.
The Dodgers' lineup has been the most effective unit in the league when playing at home this season, while Gray and the Cardinals' offense have both struggled mightily on the road.
At -130 or better, there looks to be value in betting the Dodgers to win the first five innings (three-way line), and I would bet it down to -140.
Pick: Dodgers -0.5 F5 Innings (DraftKings, Play to -140)
Moneyline
At -185, there appears to be value in betting the Dodgers to win. But I see more value in backing them to cover -0.5 in the first five innings at -130, especially given the edge that Glasnow provides over Gray.
Run Line (Spread)
Backing the Dodgers to cover the run-line at +110 also looks to hold some value and is my second favorite play from this matchup.
Over/Under
My lean would be with the under, with the total set at 8. I'm high on the chances that Glasnow will have a strong outing, while Gray appears likely to offer more respectable results moving forward.
