The Baltimore Orioles host the Tampa Bay Rays on June 29, 2025. First pitch from Oriole Park at Camden Yards is scheduled for 1:35 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on FDSSUN.
The first two games had plenty of runs, with both teams winning one. Today, the Orioles' Dean Kremer will square off against the Rays' Taj Bradley.
Find our MLB betting preview and Rays vs Orioles prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
Our Rays vs Orioles Prediction
- Rays vs Orioles picks: Under 9.5 (-102, BetMGM)
Our Rays vs Orioles best bet is Under 9.5. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Rays vs Orioles Odds
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 9.5 -118o / -102u | -105 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -185 | 9.5 -118o / -102u | -115 |
Rays vs Orioles Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Taj Bradley (TB) | Stat | RHP Dean Kremer (BAL) |
|---|---|---|
| 5-5 | W-L | 6-7 |
| 0.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.2 |
| 4.57/3.67 | ERA /xERA | 4.60/4.30 |
| 4.46/4.07 | FIP / xFIP | 4.06/4.25 |
| 1.28 | WHIP | 1.34 |
| 11.5 | K-BB% | 12.5 |
| 50.4 | GB% | 39.0 |
| 99 | Stuff+ | 97 |
| 90 | Location+ | 102 |
Rays vs Orioles Preview
June has been a heads or tails month for the Rays' Taj Bradley. He either throws a great game or gets pummeled.
His last outing versus the Royals was the former: no runs and only two hits in 6 2/3 innings. He did something similar against the Astros on June 1st, giving up only three hits and one unearned run in seven innings.
The issue is when he doesn't. This same Orioles team beat him up on June 18, when he didn't get past the second inning.
Today should be different since this game is in Baltimore. His away numbers are much better, with a 3.32 ERA compared to his home ERA of 5.55. Bradley also pitches well in day games: 3.93 ERA versus 4.99 at night.
Conversely, and most importantly for our pick today, Dean Kremer does way better at home than on the road. The Orioles starter has a 2.90 ERA at Camden Yards compared to a 5.49 ERA in away games this season.
Those splits align with our Bet Labs Low Total Unders with Line Movement (F5) system, which recommends the under for today's game.
Rays vs Orioles Prediction, Betting Analysis
This MLB first five innings system, titled "Low Total Unders with Line Movement (F5)," is built around early-game environments where oddsmakers and sharp bettors anticipate limited scoring.
The foundation starts with a low closing total—between 3.5 and 6.5—indicating a strong pitcher’s duel or poor hitting conditions. If the full game total has moved down between half a run and one run from open to close, it signals smart money pushing the market toward the under.
The model further refines this edge by requiring the juice on the under to remain within a sharp range, typically between -149 and -120, avoiding inflated pricing that could distort value.
Games played in modest wind conditions—between four and nine miles per hour—are included, as they often suppress offense without triggering dramatic public reaction.
By isolating games across the past three seasons and targeting first-half unders in tightly lined, downward-trending markets, this system captures value where the market signals defensive control without overreaction.
Pick: Under 9.5 (-102, BetMGM)
