The Kansas City Royals host the Tampa Bay Rays on June 26, 2025. First pitch from Kauffman Stadium is scheduled for 2:10 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on FDSSUN.
The Rays will look for a road sweep after beating the Royals 5-1 and 3-0 in the previous two games. Shane Baz will start for Tampa Bay and Michael Lorenzen will oppose him for Kansas City.
Find my MLB betting preview and Rays vs Royals prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Rays vs Royals Prediction
- Rays vs Royals picks: Under 10 (-105, BetMGM)
My Rays vs Royals best bet is Under 10 total runs for this game. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Rays vs Royals Odds
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +135 | 10 -115o / -105u | -120 |
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -160 | 10 -115o / -105u | +100 |
Rays vs Royals Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Shane Baz (TB) | Stat | RHP Michael Lorenzen (KC) |
|---|---|---|
| 7-3 | W-L | 4-7 |
| 0.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.5 |
| 4.79/4.12 | ERA /xERA | 4.81/4.23 |
| 4.83/4.14 | FIP / xFIP | 4.70/4.52 |
| 1.33 | WHIP | 1.37 |
| 12.2 | K-BB% | 11.5 |
| 49.8 | GB% | 37.6 |
| 106 | Stuff+ | 92 |
| 96 | Location+ | 102 |
Rays vs Royals Preview
Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview: Best Offense in June
Shane Baz has some room for improvement, based on his xERA and xFIP, which point to a positive regression, but the right-hander hasn't been able to string together quality starts since April.
With a barrel percentage of 10.2 and a hard-hit percentage of 41.5, it isn't easy to back him, even against the slumping Royals.
That, in fact, might be the case against him: Kansas City is bound to recover, and Baz could be the victim tonight.
The Rays will have to rely on their potent offense to come through if they want to sweep.
Tampa Bay is ranked eighth in the majors with 110 wRC+ and is the best run-producing team in June with 127 wRC+.
Kansas City Royals Betting Preview: Lorenzen Trying to Find Consistency
It has been three straight starts for Michael Lorenzen in which he's thrown well, two of which qualified as quality starts.
Kansas City is trusting him to do it for a fourth time to avoid getting swept at home, where they have a 19-21 record this season.
However, their best option is to have their lineup wake up against Baz.
The Royals haven't scored more than two runs in each of their past four games, and although that might not be a total surprise coming from the 27th-ranked offense in the majors, they are bound to string together a rally at some point.
In the last six games, Maikel Garcia, Jonathan India, and Nick Loftin all have an OPS below .600, with only Garcia hitting above .200 (.217).
Rays vs Royals Prediction, Betting Analysis
Although the over is tempting with such a pitching matchup, the total might be a bit high at 10.
If Baz can hold on without giving the Royals offense a chance to get going, their bullpen can take it from there.
Tampa Bay relievers rank fourth in MLB with a 3.31 ERA, and the Kansas City bullpen is not far behind at 3.49 (eighth).
Pick: Under 10 (-105, BetMGM)
