The Boston Red Sox host the Toronto Blue Jays on June 28, 2025. First pitch from Fenway Park is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on NESN.
The Blue Jays won yesterday with a 9-0 shutout in the opener of this three-game series. The starting pitchers today will be Chris Bassitt for Toronto and Lucas Giolito for Boston.
Find my MLB betting preview and Blue Jays vs Red Sox prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Blue Jays vs Red Sox Prediction
- Blue Jays vs Red Sox picks: Over 9 (-118, BetMGM)
My Blue Jays vs Red Sox best bet is Over 9. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Odds
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +130 | 9 -118o / -102u | -120 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -155 | 9 -118o / -102u | +100 |
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Chris Bassitt (TOR) | Stat | RHP Lucas Giolito (BOS) |
|---|---|---|
| 7-3 | W-L | 3-1 |
| 1.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.5 |
| 3.61/3.53 | ERA /xERA | 4.53/5.54 |
| 3.42/3.49 | FIP / xFIP | 4.30/4.02 |
| 1.26 | WHIP | 1.37 |
| 17.6 | K-BB% | 13.4 |
| 47.3 | GB% | 38.8 |
| 97 | Stuff+ | 91 |
| 105 | Location+ | 101 |
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Preview
Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview: Firing on All Cylinders
The Blue Jays have the 7th-best run-producing offense in June with 111 wRC+ and are second in average with .271 this month.
If yesterday's game wasn't enough (they scored against the first three Boston pitchers they saw), they will face Lucas Giolito today.
Giolito has an xERA a point higher than his actual ERA and his numbers on day games and at home are just brutal.
Giolito has a 6.28 daytime ERA compared to 3.86 when he pitches at night. At Fenway Park, his ERA balloons up to 7.66 in contrast to his 2.15 on the road.
Five Blue Jays are hitting over .300 in the last week: George Springer, Ernie Clement, Alejandro Kirk, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Myles Straw. Springer has eight RBI in that span, and Guerrero has hit two homers.
Boston Red Sox Betting Preview: Time to Start Producing
Wilyer Abreu has been hitting well, with a .294 average over the last seven games. However, the rest of the lineup needs to pick up the slack.
The Red Sox are ranked 16th in wRC+ with 99, but their lineup should be producing a bit more, and they will have a chance today.
Chris Bassitt has been steady for the most part, but his away/home split numbers point in the same direction as today's pick.
The Blue Jays starter has a 4.91 ERA on the road compared to 2.60 at Rogers Centre.
Boston should capitalize on that. They could also take advantage of a Toronto bullpen that has given up 35 home runs this season.
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Prediction, Betting Analysis
Fenway Park is the second-best stadium in Baseball Savant's Park Factors for run production, and is particularly useful for line-drive hitters who can take advantage of the outfield gaps.
This is why Fenway Park is considered the best for hitting doubles, according to the same Park Factors rankings.
With a total line of 9, both pitchers split numbers and a day game with better weather, the over is the wat to go.
Pick: Over 9 (-118, BetMGM)
