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Twins vs. Orioles Odds, Pick, Prediction: Don’t Bother Backing These Starting Pitchers (May 2)

Twins vs. Orioles Odds, Pick, Prediction: Don’t Bother Backing These Starting Pitchers (May 2) article feature image

Brace Hemmelgarn/Minnesota Twins/Getty Images. Pictured: Byron Buxton.

  • The Twins and Orioles open a series in Baltimore, with Minnesota favored.
  • Tyler Wells will start for the O's against Twins right-hander Chris Paddack.
  • Nick Shlain breaks down the matchup and makes his betting pick below.

Twins vs. Orioles Odds

Twins Odds -150
Orioles Odds +125
Over/Under 7.5
Time 7:05 p.m. ET
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

It’s not that early in the season anymore, and the Minnesota Twins weren’t supposed to be sitting atop the American League Central, 4.5 games ahead of the Chicago White Sox.

It’s still a long season and every game counts, even the ones against the last-place Baltimore Orioles in early May. These games might even be the most crucial and the Twins are expected to take care of business here favored at -140, but will they get the job done?

Wells Matches Up Poorly With Minnesota

The Twins have some high-profile bats like Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa, but the lineup hasn’t been great overall. Minnesota is tied for 14th in MLB with 94 runs scored on the season, although this should be a good matchup against Orioles starter Tyler Wells. The right-hander has a 5.54 ERA and 5.14 xERA in four starts this season.

Wells has allowed a .217 ISO to right-handed batters in his career, and that should also play to the Twins’ advantage with a mostly right-handed-hitting lineup.

Wells has thrown five innings just once in his four starts, and the Orioles bullpen, which isn’t great, could be need early and often in this game.

Can Paddack Continue Hot Start?

The Orioles don’t have the hitting starpower of the Twins, but they could be in position for a decent showing against Minnesota starter Chris Paddack.

Paddack has a 3.68 ERA after three starts this season, but he had a 5.07 ERA last year and his career ERA is 4.18. The right-hander seems to have made some improvements this season, as he’s walked only one batter in 14 2/3 innings pitched and doing a good job keeping the ball on the ground (51% ground ball percentage).

Paddack is also yet to allow a home run in 2022 after giving up 15 long balls in 22 starts last year. Maybe he’s a better pitcher this year, but he also could be due to give up some big flies finally.

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Twins-Orioles Pick

I like the over here and would bet it up to -120. My model has the total for this game almost a full run higher than 7.5, and I’m inclined to trust that in a spot that I don’t trust either starting pitcher.

The Twins getting into the Orioles bullpen early is the likely path to this bet cashing.

Pick: Over 7.5 -115

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