The Chicago Cubs host the Washington Nationals on September 5, 2025. First pitch from Wrigley Field is scheduled for 2:20 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on Apple TV+.
Find my MLB betting preview and Nationals vs Cubs prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Nationals vs Cubs Prediction
- Nationals vs Cubs Pick: Over 10.5 (play to 11)
My Nationals vs Cubs best bet is on the Over. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Nationals vs Cubs Odds
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -105 | 10.5 -105o / -115u | +185 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -115 | 10.5 -105o / -115u | -225 |
Nationals vs Cubs Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Jake Irvin (WAS) | Stat | RHP Javier Assad (CHC) |
|---|---|---|
| 53-81 | W-L | 1-1 |
| -0.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.1 |
| 5.42 / 5.64 | ERA / xERA | 4.05 / 5.53 |
| 5,56 / 4.81 | FIP / xFIP | 4.64 / 4.72 |
| 1.41 | WHIP | 1.35 |
| 1.9 | K-BB% | 2.0 |
| 44 | GB% | 52.2 |
| 94 | Stuff+ | 93 |
| 104 | Location+ | 103 |
Sean Paul’s Nationals vs Cubs Preview
Chicago Cubs Betting Preview
The Cubs will give Javier Assad the ball for just the fourth time this season. He got hurt in Spring Training and didn’t make his season debut until August.
Assad has a 4.05 ERA in 20 1/3 innings, but his 5.53 xERA and 4.64 FIP are indicators for a potential rough finish to his season. Even last year, Assad struggled to generate swing and misses and had way more concerning underlying numbers than his ERA showed. I don’t buy into Assad being a very reliable starter in the majors, as he doesn’t throw hard and walked nearly four batters per nine innings pitched last season.
Chicago hasn’t hit well in a while, but this could be a solid get-right spot for an underachieving offense. Since August 15th, the Cubs rank 22nd among MLB lineups with a 94 wRC+.
It’s not all bad, though. Kyle Tucker has a 176 wRC+ in that span, which is a welcome sight for the Cubs' most gifted hitter to round into form. Now that Tucker is rolling again, it’s paramount for Seiya Suzuki and Michael Busch to pick up the slack for the rest of the lineup.
Even with the struggles, Chicago still offers a strong plate approach, posting a 20.7% strikeout rate and a 9.3% walk rate across its past 20 games — both of which rank in the top 10.
Washington Nationals Betting Preview
The Nationals' pitching staff is in a pretty bad state. Between Mitchell Parker and Friday's starter, Jake Irvin, that might be the worst pair of regular rotation members in baseball.
Irvin looked like he could be a piece of the Nationals' future last year, but he has regressed to a 5.42 ERA with a 5.64 xERA and a 5.56 FIP in 28 starts.
His Savant page is one of the coldest you'll see from an MLB starter. Irvin ranks in the 15th percentile or worse among qualified MLB starters in xERA, xBA, whiff rate, strikeout rate, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate. The only thing Irvin is good at is generating ground balls, but most of them are hit pretty hard.
Even though Irvin has a strong ground ball rate, he surrenders a jarring 1.81 HR/9. With all the lefty power in the Cubs lineup, that could be a problem for Irvin.
Perhaps the Nationals' 10-run performance in their most recent game against the Marlins can get their offense back on track.
Washington has the 24th-best offense in baseball over the past 18 games, according to wRC+. A lot of what makes or breaks the Nationals' offense is James Wood, who has a 112 wRC+ in that span. He's also punching out 43% of the time in those 18 games, so facing a pitcher in Assad, who lacks strikeout stuff, could be huge.
There's no sugarcoating how poor the Nationals' offense has been. But if the Cubs can pounce Irvin like they should, all the Nationals will need to do is tally a few runs off Assad to put the over in good shape.
Nationals vs Cubs Prediction, Betting Analysis
The wind is on our side.
With it being a day game, the wind appears to be gusting out to right field, which could lead to some pull-side homers for the long list of left-handed batters on both sides.
Of course, I'd prefer the Nationals to rank better than last in home runs over their last 18 games. However, I don't have faith in either pitcher, and the Cubs' offense is on the verge of breaking out.
That makes me feel good about this title going over the lofty 10.5 run total. They should be able to expose Irvin's homer woes, particularly if the wind is in a favorable spot for left-handed hitters.
I foresee a classic Wrigley day game slugfest with many wind-aided homers.
Pick: Over 10.5 (play to 11)
Nationals vs Cubs Betting Trends
