The Los Angeles Dodgers host the Washington Nationals on June 20, 2025. First pitch from Dodger Stadium is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on MASN2.
Find my MLB betting preview and Nationals vs Dodgers prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports, and more.
My Nationals vs Dodgers Prediction
- Nationals vs Dodgers picks: Nationals F5 +0.5 -115
My Nationals vs Dodgers best bet is Nationals F5 +0.5. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Nationals vs Dodgers Odds
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -135 | 8.5 -102o / -118u | +165 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +110 | 8.5 -102o / -118u | -200 |
Nationals vs Dodgers Projected Starting Pitchers
| MacKenzie Gore (WSN) | Stat | Clayton Kershaw (LAD) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-6 | W-L | 2-0 |
| 2.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.5 |
| 2.89 / 3.26 | ERA / xERA | 3.25 / 3.55 |
| 2.72 / 2.71 | FIP / xFIP | 3.64 / 4.33 |
| 1.15 | WHIP | 1.30 |
| 27.1 | K-BB% | 8.7 |
| 36.8 | GB% | 42.4 |
| 100 | Stuff+ | 95 |
| 104 | Location+ | 95 |
John Feltman’s Nationals vs Dodgers Preview
Washington Nationals Betting Preview: Back Gore to Keep it Close
Before diving into any specifics, I wanted to point out that the market has gotten out of control here. The Nationals should not be a +165 price on the moneyline with their ace on the mound.
Do I trust them for the whole game when MacKenzie Gore exits? Not particularly, but let's focus on Gore's matchup against the best offense in baseball.
Gore has had a terrific 2025 season and has taken the next step in his young big-league career. He boasts a 2.89 ERA and 119 strikeouts in 87 innings pitched.
He ranks amongst the elite in strikeout, whiff, and chase rate, which is the type of pitcher that can give any opposing offense issues. He will need to bring his A+ game, but given the fact that Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, and Max Muncy are all lefties, that should make the matchup more manageable.
I also like the matchup for the Nationals' offense. Clayton Kershaw is a first-ballot HOFer, and he is no longer what he used to be during the prime of his career.
Kershaw is a serviceable arm, but he is far more prone to being struck on a more consistent basis. It's also worth noting that most of the Nationals' lineup has not faced Kershaw before, so that could also play to their advantage.
With Gore on the mound, I have confidence that he can pitch well enough to keep the Nationals in the game in the early going.
Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview: Kershaw & Dodgers' Bats to Regress
I think the most significant aspect of this handicap tonight is breaking down Kershaw's metrics. He enters with a respectable 3.55 xERA, but opponents are squaring up the baseball far too often against him.
Kershaw's average exit velo allowed is 93 mph, which ranks amongst the bottom of the league's starting pitchers. They also have a 51% hard-hit rate against him, which gives me considerable concern.
The Nationals rank among the bottom-10 MLB lineups in runs scored per game, but the market has not fully adjusted to Kershaw at this stage in his career. His underlying metrics suggest he is not nearly as effective, and it would not be surprising to see him struggle.
As for the Dodgers' offense, they are matchup-proof against anybody. However, they will have a tougher time against Gore than the public perceives.
The Dodgers have crushed it offensively at home, batting .277 as a team. That is not too surprising, given their talent, but they are due for a bit of regression moving forward.
Their batting average slightly dips against lefties, so there is a path where their offense struggles out of the gate against Gore. It's always a risk to fade the best team in baseball, but there's a lot that I don't like about the matchup tonight.
Nationals vs Dodgers Prediction, Betting Analysis
I love the Nationals' F5 run line tonight.
I think the market has completely overinflated the Dodgers all season, which is not too surprising given their talent.
However, this is an excellent opportunity to take advantage of the inflated price, and we could cash in on this bet if the game is tied after five innings.
I trust Gore’s stuff to hold steady and the Nationals' offense to crack through against an aging Kershaw tonight. I’d rather target the early portion of the game, but I will be sprinkling the Nats moneyline for the whole game.
Pick: Nationals F5 +0.5
Moneyline
There is no play on the moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
Back the Nationals on the first five-run line.
Over/Under
There is no value on the total.
