The Miami Marlins host the Washington Nationals on September 11, 2025. First pitch from loanDepot park is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on FDSFL.
We have a southpaws' pitching duel for this series finale, with MacKenzie Gore on the mound for the Nationals and Ryan Weathers for the Marlins.
Find my MLB betting preview and Nationals vs Marlins prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Nationals vs Marlins Prediction
- Nationals vs Marlins pick: Ryan Weathers Over 4.5 Strikeouts
My Nationals vs Marlins best bet is on Ryan Weathers to record over 4.5 strikeouts today. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Nationals vs Marlins Odds
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +165 | 8 -105o / -115u | -102 |
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -200 | 8 -105o / -115u | -118 |
Nationals vs Marlins Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP MacKenzie Gore (WAS) | Stat | LHP Ryan Weathers (MIA) |
|---|---|---|
| 5-13 | W-L | 1-1 |
| 2.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.1 |
| 4.15 / 4.17 | ERA / xERA | 3.28 / 3.24 |
| 3.69 / 3.70 | FIP / xFIP | 4.48 / 4.24 |
| 1.34 | WHIP | 1.05 |
| 18.9 | K-BB% | 14.7 |
| 36.1 | GB% | 40.6 |
| 98 | Stuff+ | 108 |
| 99 | Location+ | 101 |
Nationals vs Marlins Preview, Prediction, Betting Analysis
Ryan Weathers has shown tantalizing upside when he's been healthy. Unfortunately, he hasn't been healthy too often. The Marlins lefty missed the first month and a half of the season with a forearm strain suffered in Spring Training. He made it back for five starts and then went down with a lat strain. He tossed 60 and 68 pitches in a pair of rehab appearances.
Weathers flashed awesome secondary pitches over 16 starts last season. His changeup posted a +4 run value and a hefty 37.9% whiff rate. His sweeper had an absurd 51.5% whiff rate and held hitters to a .115 BA and .173 SLG.
The problem was his fastball. Weathers' heater posted a -4 run value. Hitters hammered it for a .313 BA and .446 SLG.
He added more than a tick of velocity to the pitch over the offseason. He came out sitting at 97.2 mph with the 4-seamer after being at 95.9 mph last season. With the fastball now keeping hitters honest, Weathers posted a career-best 12.1% SwStr% through five starts.
The Nationals are the single best strikeout matchup for left-handed pitchers right now. They lead the league with a 27.9% K% vs. LHP since the start of July and are dead last in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+.
Tonight's projected lineup has combined for a massive 27.3% K% across 884 plate appearances against LHP this season. Weathers will likely be capped at five innings today, but that should be more than enough in this matchup.
Pick: Ryan Weathers Over 4.5 Strikeouts
Nationals vs Marlins Betting Trends
