Astros vs White Sox Odds, Picks, Predictions | MLB Betting Preview

Astros vs White Sox Odds, Picks, Predictions | MLB Betting Preview article feature image

Chris Coduto/Getty Images. Pictured: Luis Robert Jr.

  • The Astros host the White Sox on Opening Day.
  • Houston is expected to be one of the best teams in baseball this season, but our expert sees value on Chicago in this matchup.
  • Brad Cunningham previews the game and shares his best bet below.

White Sox vs. Astros Odds

Thursday, March 30
7:05 p.m. ET
White Sox Odds
MoneylineTotalRun Line
-105 / -115
Astros Odds
MoneylineTotalRun Line
-105 / -115
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The Houston Astros being their title defense at home on Opening Day when they take on the Chicago White Sox.

A new era is beginning for the White Sox under new manager Pedro Grifol after they said goodbye to Tony LaRussa. The White Sox were the favorites to win the AL Central the past two seasons, but now they're third behind the Guardians and Twins.

Chicago went through a lot of injuries last season. The best hitter from that team, Jose Abreu, is gone, and now there are questions about their starting pitching depth. It may be a long season on South Side of Chicago.

Houston was your 2022 World Series champion, beating the Phillies in six games. Now, it's time for the Astros to defend their title and they are once again one of the favorites to win the World Series.

The Astros brought back a lot of their core outside of Just Verlander leaving for the Mets. Houston has all of the pieces to contend once again and should win the AL West with relative ease this season.

Chicago White Sox


The White Sox offense went through a lot of injuries last season. Eloy Jimenez, Luis Robert and Tim Anderson all failed to play more than 100 games. In fact their leader in wOBA, wRC+, and WAR was Jose Abreu, who is now in the other dugout playing for the Astros.

Specifically, for their matchup with Framber Valdez, it is a decent one. The White Sox were one of the best offenses in baseball against left-handed pitching, ranking top five in both wOBA and wRC+. Not only that, but Valdez goes to either his sinker or curveball 67% of the time and the White Sox had a +2.2 run value against left-handed sinkers and curveballs in 2022.

Starting Pitcher: Dylan Cease, RHP

Pitch Arsenal

2022 Data via Baseball Savant

Dylan Cease made an incredible leap in 2022 from front-end starter to Cy Young candidate. He put up a 2.70 xERA and was in the 90th percentile or above in just about every single important metric for a starting pitcher.

Image via Baseball Savant

One of the main reasons he was able to do that is because he became less reliant on his fastball. In 2021, his fastball was his go-to pitch, as he threw it 46.8% of the time, and even though it averaged over 96 mph, he wasn't very effective with it, allowing a .385 xwOBA.

However, in 2022, he started to rely on his slider more than any other pitch, which is smart because it's by far his best pitch, producing a whiff rate of 43.3% and opponents only had a .144 xBA against it as well.

How is the Dylan Cease slider still legal?

— Sox On Tap #SetTheTone (@SoxOnTap) July 24, 2022

The Astros were one of the best lineups against fastballs last season with a +61.1 run value, but did struggle against sliders with a -1.3 run value. So Cease should be effective with his best pitch.

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Houston Astros


Houston had one of the best offenses in baseball last season because of not only how deep it is one-through-nine, but also because it had the second best hitter in baseball in Yordan Alvarez. If it wasn't for Aaron Judge, Alvarez very well may have won the MVP putting up the numbers he did.

Image via Baseball Savant

The Astros' lineup now only gets better with the addition of Abreu, while keeping their core together. Michael Brantley and Jose Altuve won't be in the lineup on Opening Day, though, which does hurt the Astros.

Specifically to the matchup with Cease, the Astros did struggle with sliders last season, putting up a negative run value. The one time they did face Cease in August of last season, they did get him for six hits and three runs over five innings.

Starting Pitcher: Framber Valdez, LHP

Pitch Arsenal

2022 Data via Baseball Savant

Valdez didn't really put up elite type numbers in 2022, in fact he got shelled pretty hard being in the bottom 20% among starting pitchers in average exit velocity allowed and hard hit percentage allowed.

2022 Data via Baseball Savant

He mainly utilizes a sinker and curveball 67% of the time, so naturally with everything going down in the zone, those pitches are designed to get ground balls. Valdez had an insanely high 66.8% groundball rate in 2022, which actually was slightly less than his 70.4% in 2021. However, even those concerning stat exit velocity and hard hit rate allowed numbers, he still had a 3.31 xERA, which is the best mark of his career.

Going up against a top-five offense against left-handed pitching and given their success against sinkers and curveballs, this isn't the best of matchups for Valdez on Opening Day.

White Sox vs. Astros Betting Pick

I think the White Sox are a little undervalued here on Opening Day. Cease's expected numbers were way better than Valdez's last season, plus the White Sox are a top-five offense in baseball against left-handed pitching. The Astros also being without Altuve and Brantley in the lineup does hurt them.

Although the White Sox bullpen is without Liam Hendriks, the Astros don't have an elite bullpen to give them a significant enough edge.

I only have the Astros projected at -127, so I think there is a little bit of value on the White Sox at +136 (FanDuel).

Pick: White Sox +136 (Bet at +132 or Better)

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