World Series Player Props, PrizePicks Plays for Astros vs Phillies Game 3
Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images. Pictured: Yordan Alvarez
The Astros and Phillies split the first two games and the World Series now shifts to Philadelphia for Game 3. Due to weather, this game was originally scheduled for Monday but moved to Tuesday as each game moves back a day.
Player props have become among the most popular bets in the industry, but while the amount of states with legalized gambling is growing, some may feel left out.
Therefore, let’s take a look at some of the options on Tuesday’s Major League Baseball slate and see where we can find some value to turn a profit.
A quick refresher if you aren’t familiar with PrizePicks: you can combine up to five different O/U player props to payout up to 10x your wager.
You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play gives you lesser odds, but you can win money even if you don’t nail every pick. Meanwhile, a Power Play is similar to a parlay — it’s all or nothing.
Here’s how I would approach today’s MLB slate.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
Lance McCullers Jr. Over 5.5 Strikeouts
Lance McCullers Jr. takes the mound for Houston in Game 3 and will be looking to replicate Framber Valdez’s great outing in Game 2. Since making his season debut in the middle of August after missing more than half the season with a forearm injury, McCullers has been dealing.
Including his two playoff starts, McCullers is 4-2 with a 2.30 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. His metrics are also spectacular as he boasts a .294 xwOBA, a .224 xBA and a .342 xSLG.
A big part of his success has been his ability to strike out batters, as he boasts a 25.6 K%. McCullers has collected at least six strikeouts in seven of his 10 starts, a trend that should continue against Philadelphia.
Through 59 career plate appearances against the right-hander, the Phillies roster possesses a troubling 30.5 K%. Looking at Philadelphia’s projected lineup for Game 3, five of the nine hitters possess a K% north of 21%.
Yordan Alvarez Hitter Fantasy Score Over 6.5
We are also going to back a couple of Astros’ hitters as they are slated to go against left-hander Ranger Suarez. While many teams have utility hitters that play numerous positions, Suarez has turned into a “utility pitcher” if you will, for the Phillies in the postseason as he has served as both a reliever and starter.
Serving in this dual role, the left-hander has been successful through four appearances with a 1.86 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. However, now is the time to sell high on Suarez.
In his lone career start against Houston, Suarez got rocked as he allowed six runs on seven hits through just three innings. We should expect to see more of the same against a stacked Astros lineup that rakes left-handed pitching.
The first Houston hitter we are backing is superstar Yordan Alvarez, who has been an absolute phenom at the dish all year. In the regular season, Alvarez posted a .304 BA, .612 SLG and a 1.017 OPS.
Somehow, his metrics are even better as he boasts a .462 xwOBA, a .329 xBA and a .672 xSLG. That excellent hitting continued into the playoffs as he has gone over this fantasy total in four of the nine games he’s played.
Alvarez should have no issue getting over this number against Suarez. Through three career at-bats against the left-hander, Alvarez is 2-for-33 with two doubles.
His metrics across those three plate appearances indicate that regression should not be too big of a concern as he has produced a .381 xBA, 1.034 xSLG and .596 xwOBA.
When facing left-handers this season, Alvarez boasts a .321 BA, .586 SLG, and .998 OPS.
Alex Bregman Under 0.5 Strikeouts
The other Astros hitter we are backing in this game is Alex Bregman, at least to not strikeout. Bregman enters this contest amidst a five-game hit streak and has been nearly impossible to strike out over the last month.
One of the best hitters in all of baseball at avoiding strikeouts, Bregman boasts an impeccable 11.7% K rate. In fact, he has failed to strike out in 11 of his last 14 games when you include this postseason.
While Bregman is 0-for-2 in his career against Suarez (with a walk), neither of those at-bats resulted in a strikeout. While Suarez is valuable in many areas, striking out hitters is not his strongest suit.
Rarely records more than four strikeouts in a start, It would be shocking if one of those came against Bregman. This season, the left-hander possesses a mere 19.5 K%.
Through 23 career plate appearances against Suarez, this Astros roster possesses a 17.4 K%.